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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (2151)	7/15/1998 12:18:00 AM
From: The Stockman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

You seem informed about problems with embedded chips. I see repeated reference to a figure of 3 to 5%, as the fraction of embedded chips likely to exhibit Y2K problems. Where does this come from and how solid do you think this estimate is? For instance, what in your opinion are the odds that the total number of chips that end up failing 1/1/2000 will be less than 1% or more than say 7%? Has TAVA (or anyone) done a broad survey of chips likely to fail and come up with the above figure? -- Greg Stock

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (2151)	7/15/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

' MF Newsletter #5 By: Joe Boivin Long ago battles and stubborn old men dressed in orange are not worth the lives of three babies. The Dutch are world leaders in understanding the gravity of the current situation. They see themselves as among the least badly prepared within Europe. Their government has made it a top priority. The Netherlands Central Bank has been tasked to coordinate and supervise Y2K measures in the Dutch financial sector. Not all banks are expected to complete the necessary work. The Dutch Prime Minister is the only other world leader to really speak up on this issue besides British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Few problems become resolved unless someone is held accountable. Someone must own the problem. Leadership, without clearly designated ownership, is not leadership. If you cannot define who owns the problem, you cannot provide effective leadership. The only valid default position is that all leaders own the problem until they can delegate it to someone else. Once the problem is delegated, the leader continues to be held responsible. Anyone in any position of authority must accept ownership of the Year 2000 Problem before they can provide effective leadership. Anyone who declines to accept ownership of this problem is not qualified to provide leadership. South Africa is following the GMF Five Step Process with one addition. They believe all testing needs to be performed by an independent or different party than the organization responsible for fixing the problem. The theory is sound but too little time remains to apply this approach to everything. The most critical elements such as hydro should require independent verification. Since independent testing is the most complicated, the most expensive and the most time consuming, other less critical elements can be tested by the same people doing the fixes. As long as test results are retained for audit purposes and as long as the people doing the fixes agree to be at their post on January 1, 2000 to correct anything that was missed, then that should be sufficient. South Africa is preparing a campaign to raise awareness through a "National Awareness Day" to be held on August 19, 1998. I believe this campaign is a good idea as long as everyone working on solving the problem declare their decision (to be at work on January 1, 2000 or to be somewhere else) by this date. This is important to us so that we know who is "in" and who is "out". We know with absolute certainty that there will be more problems on January 1, 2000 than the world has ever seen before. Unless everyone who can fix these problems is at their post, we may not be able to put it back together. Anyone who does not declare their intentions must be assumed to be "out." Start listing this information in your workplace for all to see. History is full of many examples of large and powerful organizations that became too complacent and then failed. The largest and most complicated organizations always fail; it is only a matter of time. Size is not always a guarantee of success. The "we are too big to fail" mentality results from pride and arrogance. Nothing is invincible. The weak links will fail first. Use these weak links as early warning signals. We need to stop depending so much on things that could break. We must have at least two ways to do anything critical to our survival. When one breaks, the other keeps working. In this way, basic services are available to help fix the broken elements. Consider each community. What products and services are needed from outside the community? What can be done to make the community more self-sufficient? Any products or services that must be acquired from outside of the community should have a backup plan in case the primary source fails. Also consider stockpiling anything that may be critical to the well being of the citizens in each community. y2ktimebomb.com

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (2151)	7/15/1998 2:52:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

'"It's fine if the U.S. networks are ready, but so what? We're concerned about operations in Europe and Asia," said Peter A. Miller, chief information officer at J.P. Morgan & Co. in New York, after testifying at the hearing. ... A study by Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York found that 29 voice and data carriers in the U.S. are likely to be ready for the century date change, but half the carriers in Latin America are in the "don't know" category. For example, Brazil's Telebras was listed as "woefully uncompliant at this stage." .. computerworld.com

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (2151)	7/15/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

'Another tactic to gain the attention of staff was tried in Washington State with great success. The electronic data interchanges for their Department of Social and Health Services have been displayed on a large board using colored string to connect all internal and external exchanges. The board is mounted in the Director’s office foyer for all to see. It has been great for building awareness. y2ktimebomb.com