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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bolder who wrote (10390)	7/14/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

One other point. The media/ad empire is still trying to figure out the internet. What they don't want to see, as it runs against their very existence, is one simple, obvious fact: the internet IS NOT A BROADCAST MEDIA YOU BLITHERING IDIOTS! It does not force a concentration of attention or limited channeling of information. It is not controlled extensively by broadcast stations or ad agency production studios. It is increasingly in users best interest to want diversification of content providers and sources of products that cater to individual preferences. And the barriers for market entry are lower than any other type of media. There will not be one or two big winners that decimate the competition but, rather, a broadening competitive field. Many of the small internet companies offer the best prices and personal service. Despite the apparent successes of the OnSale.coms, Eggheads, and others, the largest growth on the internet has occured among a large number of smaller companies. The reason for making this point is that I have seen posts from Amazonianuts.com bulls that talk about AMZN capturing a significant portion of the overall sale of books. First, I don't think that most people will purchase a single book on-line anytime within the next five years. Second, I don't think on-line sales of books will be more than 45% of overall book sales within the next ten years. A good portion of book sales will be institutional or corporate purchases under contract or otherwise at deep discounts. Barnes & Noble is already a step ahead of Amazon in providing that capability (see recent press releases). And finally, I think Amazon will share the market with several current and new competitors, some of which operate with greater leverage or lower overheads. Let the fun begin. Over the next several months Amazon's sales will continue to rise but so will the losses and the competition. Those investors who focus on the idea that the internet as some new panacia and ignore profits will come increasingly to the realization that Amazon is not alone in the market. Their apparent lead will crumble before the huge profits many envision are ever realized. I don't think Amazon is headed for bankruptcy or anything close to it anytime soon. Maybe that's posible sometime in the future. But just like the huge profits sthe bulls are counting on in order to justify the stock price, that remains to be seen. IMO, AMZN will probably become a much larger company and a worthy competitor to Barnes and Noble and Borders. At 6 billion in cap, Amazonianuts are either dumb or gullible to bank on the chickens long before the eggs hatch - the stock will come down from here. Maybe it will go up further short term but it will come down when all the chips are counted.

To: Bolder who wrote (10390)	7/15/1998 2:53:00 AM
From: jach	Respond to of 164684

what kind of business that can maintain 100$+ stock price and close to 6 Billion mkt cap considering loss for this yr and next yr, and very likely third yr also. concensus estimates for amzn: This qtr (Jun 98) -0.38 This yr -1.14 Next yr -0.67 will probably go into history, the business is selling of books and CDs at a discount price on the Internet; how long it can maintain this astronomical level is a good question; historically thousands of hyped-up stocks like these without any earnings can be found at the other spectrum, i.e. thinly traded as penny stocks.

To: Bolder who wrote (10390)	7/15/1998 10:54:00 AM
From: professor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

There are no real bears anymore. They have switched to becoming day traders because fundamental analysis means nothing anymore. Since financial analysis is thrown out the window these days and technical analysis rules why base one's investment decisions on the quality of the company. How can the Nasdaq be undervalued by 10% last month? How can the Nasdaq be undervalued by 44% since the beginning of last year? How could investors be so wrong on value? Draw your own conclusions.