Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Colby who wrote (11509)	7/15/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: betty moyers	Respond to of 23519

Two messages from Yahoo on Marketing Partnershi They make sense to me Message 13570 Jul 14 1998 2:55PM EDT In my opinion, neither will happen soon. At first, I was also disappointed at no concrete announcement at the earnings time. After a second thought, I see no disadvantage for either to happen at a later time. 1. The deal with Alza allow MUSE to be sold for 6 more month at no extra sales cost except normal incentive. That sales incentive may come at more than $1/unit since VVUS recorded its revenue at about $129m/8m=$16/unit last year while looking at its home page, the whole sale price range from $15+ - $19+ with an average of at least $17 if higher dosage is more frequently prescribed. That sales incentive, therefore, should keep the sales going like before even though VVUS now does not pay their expenses directly. This amounts a rather measurable savings for VVUS and should be utilized as much as possible. 2. Internaltional market picks up quickly resulting the production to be at capacity. 3. VVUS just went through its worst situation and has the least bargain power for either type of negotiations. 4. VVUS is at a turn-around point. More countries to be approved soon. Domestic scripts start to go up. With 50% increase of scripts from current level, it's likely to see a 100% increase in US revenue for Q3 from Q2 because the Q2 renvenue seems to be largely affected by inventories at phamarcies before the quater With all things considered except milestone payments, I think it' very likely to see the revenue for Q3 to be more than 30m while the total costs come at below 24m. If two more lines will be up and running at capacity for Q4, revenue could come at more than 40m while costs at less than 30m. By the time things begin to go clearly towards this direction, VVUS will be at a lot better position for any negotiations. Just my opinion. Message 13562 Jul 14 1998 11:54AM EDT After a number of days in digesting the press release related to this company, I tend to believe that any deal ( marketing partner, buyout) will unlikely happen in the next 6~8 weeks. A more realistic guess would be that the deal is somewhere around the end of the year, when the limited efforts of the sales force ends. During this marketing blank period, we longs only hope that we can get strong international sales and slightly recovering of US sales. My prediction is that before the real recovering of the US sales, any deal would be not as good as we expected. A compound increase rate of 5% will double the script number within 15 weeks, that is less than 4 months, which is still a long way to go.