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Technology Stocks : PC Sector Round Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuck Bleakney who wrote (575)	7/16/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2025

Re: A Modest Proposal I've got a crazy idea that seems to have taken root in my thoughts. I can't shake it. The time may have come at last to SHORT MICROSOFT? Here's the argument, with elements in decreasing order of subjective importance: 1. Recent PC sales data seem to indicate relatively inelastic PC demand. Cratering prices have not significantly boosted unit demand growth rates. In fact unit demand growth is flat relative to history and thus I infer that absolute levels of PC demand have fallen. We all have our own theories about why this is so discussed in good measure previously. [Factor Weight=5/5] 2. Sales growth rates in MS application products have slowed. [Factor Weight=4/5] 3. No new MS products are on deck to boost their top line in the next few quarters. [Factor Weight=4/5] 4. At 75 times trailing MS is very expensive relative to its own historical multiples. Super expensive relative to industry multiples. Although one could legitimately argue MS is an industry unto itself. <g> [Factor Weight=3/5] 5. Initial reaction to Windows 98 appears weak or negative. [Factor Weight=2/5] 6. Government actions have diverted the focus of top MS execs. [Factor Weight=2/5] 7. High valuation levels in some market sectors (you know which) are an unlit fuse ready to explode and flatten all other tall trees in the marketscape. [Factor Weight=2/5] So, somebody save me before I get myself into trouble! <g> PX