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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (11567)	7/15/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

larry, >> Or is it possible that the Nasdaq pulls back after it hits 2k? We are only 8 points away from my estimated 1998 high.<< 1,000 pt marks use to be a big thing when DOW was at 3,000. Now I don't think we notice them any more. At least I don't. Also, look at foreign markets...Japan was up at 35,000. >>Well, MSFT report either fuels another rally, and highlights profit taking. I really believe that MSFT is about to enter a consolidation phase, and DELL is also about to get there, I mean a well deserved two week rest. Look at the other super studs, CSCO, YHOO!, and AOL are apparently tired. LU is already at my estimate of 90. Can it break 100 in the near term?<< CSCO and LU are not at the same level of profitability as MSFT and DELL. I think that's partly why they've slowed down. Plus, their future as far as convergence of voice/data, is not concrete, so nobody has a solid idea of where CSCO and LU will be playing the game. Look at AT&T and TCI. There trying to solve the same problem, and getting rejected by the market. Clearly the voice/data thing is not planned out enough in lots of peoples head. But it is definitely coming... MSFT, well they keep cranking. And Win98 looks like it'll be as profitable as Win96, and it's not even a major product. And when was the last time anything slowed down MSFT? MSFT has the track record. DELL also has the track record. It's survived the E.Asia thing. Compaq is a good company, but they've fallen apart lately. Why hasn't DELL fallen apart? For now lets just say we don't know. But what do know is that DELL is succeeding where nobody else is. Same with MSFT. The entire tech sector was in the hole because of E.Asia and inventory problems, but these two are the survivors. We're in a climate where no investor wants to take a risk. Big Caps are a must. The other thing that explains these guys going up is the 30-year bond. Interest rates are at 30 year lows, and going lower. MSFT and DELL have to be corrected upwards to account for the new rates. Because of this, I don't think things will slow down until it gets where it wants to go. Profit takers can get off and take profits, but at the risk of being left behind. I think we'll know we're at a top when things slow down a bit more, when we're given more chances take profits... Actually, that's the only thing on my mind with DELL & MSFT is when can I get off the train and maximize my profits. It will then take a rest, maybe massive correction....but it'll be time to get on it again by fall or later. So, to sum things up: how do we time these beasts so we make more $$<gg> I'm sticking to my original thought. When I see volume go down (barring non-related external forces), that will be my sign of a top. good luck, joe