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Technology Stocks : OnSale Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StaggerLee who wrote (1240)	7/16/1998 7:04:00 AM
From: Irene Lynn	Respond to of 4903

well, i'm sure i'm going to make more money on this losing stock <G>..i really get a kick out of people who attack when a stock comes back...hmmm..losing stock?..that's what they said about yahoo when the stock hit $60 for the first time...all the shorts came out and kept talking it down...gee, i haven't checked where yahoo is lately...<GG>..onsale should be no different than any other "hyped" internet stock...and right now it is the leader in online auctioning..forbes must think something of them to include the ceo in the top 13 ceo's in the july 27th issue..internet stocks ARE hyped right now and onsale hasn't had its run....time will tell...but in the meantime..you can make money...both ways..<GG>..and if you don't agree with that..then you must really be upset not making these type of returns on your investment since january...1998 is the year of the internet stocks...and it won't stop here happy trading.. irene

To: StaggerLee who wrote (1240)	7/16/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Mo Chips	Respond to of 4903

Heeee's Baaaack! You say... "if SG&A increases just 4-fold over the same period (ie, from $36 million annualized now, to $150 million in 4 years), the company still isn't profitable! " Why do you think SG&A will increase at this rate? Yes, customer acqisition is the name of the game - right now. So they do need to invest (you'd probably say expend) in marketing to do this. But at some point, they can level this off and focus on maintaining the customer base - which I'd propose is cheaper than acquisition. I know you are a short - through and through. But you are nearly alone in the perception that these e-tailers will not make money - ever. I've build models that show how profitability can be obtained. And granted, the margin of error is VERY small. The difference in success and failure could be the difference in a customer repeat purchase rate of 1%. Catalog companies know this well. Why do you think Onsale can't do it? Do you know their repeat purchase rate? Do you know their cost to acquire customers? Do you know the length of life of an Onsale customer? These are, perhaps, the most important numbers to gauge Onsales potential of success. If you don't know them, then you are like me, making a guess and cannot say for sure that their model is flawed. Mo