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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (60508)	7/16/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Harry Landsiedel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jim McMannis. OT Re: "The stronger dollar is a nice shot in the arm for these companies though." There was an interesting piece in Sunday's NY Times by Gretchen Morgenson. One global economist is predicting a "bull market in the dollar" that won't peak until 2002. There are 3 bases for his prediction. 1) Financial deregulation in Japan will free up $9 trillion (that's right trillion) in assets that can be invested in higher yielding securities. (They are now earning .5%) Even if 15% move into US treasuries that will be a huge inflow. 2) Economic meltdown in Russia. That will push money into US bonds as a safe haven. 3) The Euro conversion. The Euro cannot be as strong as the strongest currency in the pool. Some are moving money into dollars as a hedge. These three factors in this economist's mind (name: Michael Armstrong) will push the long bond to 4.75% (he didn't predict when) and push the yen up as high as 200. Short term this will create a stock market correction (like last October's) but the lower bond yield will eventually be bullish. ********** The point of all that is that the strong dollar may be a long-term positive factor for component prices rather than a short-term one. Lower interest rates will encourage continued capital investment. etc. etc. HL