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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (21706)	7/16/1998 6:09:00 AM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I don't think that some absolute number is the key, rather is a change in sentiment that follows a sudden or prolonged decline. This time period reminds me of the period just before the Japanese collapse. Read any article in any magazine published in the late 80's and it's filled will predictions of Japan dominating the world for various "superiority" reasons. The same thing is true today, but now it's the US. The popular press was wrong then and IMHO is wrong today. The superiority thing was and remains nonsense. What people forget is that foreign investment on an annual basis in the US is 3 times as large as domestic savings. Yes, 401k money is a drop in the bucket compared to foreign investment. That's what has propelled the markets up to the currently historically high levels. When it reverses and it always does the "hot" money that rushed in will rush out - only at at least twice the speed. I believe that sentiment in ASIA is beginning to reverse. here's an example: biztimes.asia1.com It is quite specific and seems to be laughing at our bubble. This is very dangerous IMHO.

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (21706)	7/16/1998 6:19:00 AM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Last year I posted on one of the SI boards that late spring of this year was the likely time frame for the reversal to start. Here we are well into the summer and no reversal so far. I hope that I continue to be wrong. I have started various "java/internet" companies to take advantage of the mania on wall street. Actually, they have real products and make money - I have to change that to make the really big bucks -g-. I need more time to finish selling them or taking them public. Wish me luck and hope that I continue to be wrong regarding the end of the mania.