To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (583 ) 7/17/1998 3:57:00 AM From: Rocky Reid Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10072
OK, here is my synopsis of this little Earnings report: Sierk is very good at puttng the ol' spin on things. Everything is peachy, right? Hmmm... I guess the big news is that Zip disc unit sales are up 44% over 2nd Q '97. But hold on- Zip drives shipped have increased from 7 million to 15 million since then. This is a Zip drive unit increase of 114%. Installed Base of Zip drive units increased by 114% since 7/97 but Zip discs units only by 44% since 7/97 Zip discs are not keeping up with the installed base of Zip Drives. Ken has been right all along about average Zip owners typically buying 5 or 6 discs then stopping. Clearly the tie ratio is dropping drastically. And remember, during this time, Zip discs have been selling at numerous discount outlets, bulk buys, and rebates. Pricing has been important to try and get them off the shelves. But one thing- they can't seem to make a profit off of this business. Zip discs are still expensive, but evidently they need to be in order for Iomega to try and make a profit. Lowering prices for more unit sales clearly does not make up for the loss in margins. Speaking of margins, Gross Margin fell to 24%, down from 29% the year before. Iomega arranged for $150 Million more credit from the usual suspects- Dunn, Idanta, and...JP Morgan! Suprise! Is it any wonder if this Street stalwart knows how the game is played? JP covers the stock then scores the loan.. very slick, Mr, Morgan. They've always been very kind in regards to IOM earnings forecasts and stock price projections...but badly wrong in both. The Nomai charge will be taken in the 3rd Quarter. This is where it gets a little hairy. If the entire amount is applied, then $40 Million will have to be accounted for, and this will represent a charge of ($0.15). This is on top of an earnings loss that could be as big as what was reported today. Folks, there is a very good chance that IOM will not have a PE ratio for all of next year, even assuming they return to profitability in the 4th Q (which is in serious doubt). Jaz rev fell 21%, (big suprise) because of SparQ and CD-RW drives. Zip drive unit sales rose 35% over a year ago, but Zip $$$ sales were up only 10%. Again, margins are getting crushed. The amount of $$$ Iomega realizes from Zip drives is not keeping up with unit sales. Not by a long shot. Europe down 13% Asia down 4% R&D 8% of sales. Ho-Hum. Overall revenue was $394 Mill. If you add Zip, Jaz, and Ditto rev, you get about $392 Mill. What's missing? BUZZZZZ. This means, with all of the R&D and marketing thrown at this thing, Buz has only brought in about $2 Million. You know what? Vapor will do about the same.