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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taby who wrote (21904)	7/16/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: Lane	Respond to of 70976

In the MSFT conference call, they said they see no hope for recovery in sales to Japan anytime soon. FWIW

To: Taby who wrote (21904)	7/16/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Taby, you said >>Semi equipment makers will get hit hard after the earnings reports are finished, in about two weeks. August throgh October will be the worst period for this group.<< I'd like to accept your statement but my past training won't let me do that. <g> If this is your own opinion - what is the reasoning behind it? If it is the result of absorbing the opinions of others - who are the others and what are their reasons? If it was revealed to you - was there a burning bush? Gottfried

To: Taby who wrote (21904)	7/17/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Taby,>Semi equipment makers will get hit hard after the earnings reports are finished, in about two weeks. August throgh October will be the worst period for this group.< How much would you bet on the above thought? Most of us on this site swore that AMAT would have dropped this week but what happened--it reversed back up to a high today of $32 forming a double top and raising the Bull support line to $29. It now has to drop to $28 to break the bull support line. It just seemed like I was talking of a bull support line of $27. Oh, how one week can change the trend. What I am learning, repeatedly, is that PE with AMAT is next to impossible to predict. Since AMAT is a favorite of Wall Street, Brokerages, and investors they will run up the stock when they think the bottom has been reached and buy in order to keep from being left behind. Again, we have basic Economics 101, supply vrs demand. I stand ready to buy more if AMAT drops but am wondering whether it will now drop in the low $20's after reviewing the TA charts. But like all of us on this site I have been wrong in the past. Again, I ask what is the upside reward vrs the limited downside risk. Just my $.02. Paul V.