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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (21908)	7/17/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I stand ready to buy more if AMAT drops but am wondering whether it will now drop in the low $20's after reviewing the TA charts. One interesting little development on the TA charts is that MACD(13,34,89) has just crossed up through the signal line -- a buy signal. There's resistance at 32, and AMAT made an effort to break through it today, but didn't quite make it. Tomorrow should be telling. If it does break through 32, it could go higher. If it doesn't, it might fall back to support at around 28 5/8. The last time MACD(13,34,89) crossed up through the signal line, by the way, was at the end of March. It then rose to a high at around 39.5, before plunging in the merrye month of May. Brooke

To: Paul V. who wrote (21908)	7/17/1998 11:30:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul: Re:" Most of us on this site swore that AMAT would have dropped this week but what happened--it reversed back up to a high today of $32 forming a double top and raising the Bull support line to $29." Well, not me, but I won't toot my horn <g>: Message 5150148 And when you see a closet bull feeding frenzy like you did last weekend where people were posting the price demise of AMAT on a 24 hr per day basis looking to buy, it is good to remember that the retail investor is last on the informational food chain and the more people looking to buy AMAT at lower prices the less likely it will happen. All you had to do is look at all the new faces who appeared here shopping for AMAT at significantly lower prices and weigh this along with the position of the institutions along with the expectation of a pre-announce. It was a lesson in crowd psychology. Having said that, I am neutral on AMAT short term. I sold my entire trading position yesterday at $31 7/8 and will re-establish at least below $30. You have the SEMICON West Viagra effect wearing off next week with a book to bill report that should look poor. This sector is not going to move until there is some indication of an improvement in the bookings. SEMICON West showed that this is not happening now. The market exuberance is holding AMAT up in part. It is a large cap in a large cap rally. Meanwhile, there is a trading green light IMO with a range of $28 to $32 currently. AMAT can and will trade lower under the right market circumstances both based on the overall market and internal fundamentals. If this down-cycle continues with no end seen, volume and price should drop as some institutions become bored with waiting and the investing year (fiscal year for mutual funds in October mostly) comes to a close. This sector ain't going to bring in Mr. Bonus home for any big boy without some sign of a turnaround. But I would not waste too much time on trying to tell the market what a fair price is for AMAT and waiting for it happen. There were plenty of opportunities to buy AMAT over the past month for trading change. The market is always right and does not give a damn what one thinks is a fair price for AMAT. Think like an institution and react; that is all one can do as an individual investor IMO.