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Technology Stocks : ACLY- ACCELR8. Year 2000 Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 45bday who wrote (1395)	7/20/1998 6:13:00 AM
From: Mr Logic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1518

Solution by my reckoning ACLY is still way overvalued. But the information that tells us that is in the public domain and the stock price is still $10 - so I don't know what 'the market' is expecting here. Valuation: Tom Geimer predicts $12m for 98 & $20m for 99, total $32m revenues. At 50% NET margins call that $16m in earnings, or $2/share. The non-2000 business is about $600k pa REVENUES. Say 30% NET margins for $0.025/shr, give that business a PE of 40 (I'm trying to be optimistic here) and the underlying business is worth $1. That's $3 total value for the business - where does the other $7 come from?! Maybe the y2k numbers work out twice as good as Geimer predicts, and give the underlying business a PE of 80... that still only gives us $6/share. I can't imagine how anyone believes there is upside given these (public domain) numbers. If it pops to 20 I will definitely be short again! Patrick.