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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Kearney who wrote (9426)	7/18/1998 1:06:00 AM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Tom, I expect that next year will be a blockbuster for two reasons: New products and big budgets for new hardware and software to alleviate fears about Y2000 problems. I have seen estimates for a 30% boost in sales for Europe. I haven't seen any estimates for the US. That plus declining interest rates and rapidly rising two-income, empty-nester baby-boomer investment make me very optimistic. As for the small black cloud on the horizon, Japan, I think the Japanese will soon recognize their financial crisis in terms of their economic decline relative to China--then they will fix their problem. Jack

To: Tom Kearney who wrote (9426)	7/18/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

Hi Tom, With me figuring out real earnings in the same, straight forward way I have for 2 years, I get .67 for this q, the additional .17 being the 425 million not booked as revenue. I also add .56 per share not booked for the full year, which jumps the year to ~ 2.30; trailing pe becomes 51. 1 warning sign, if you can call it that. The amount deferred failed to grow for the first time: it was 425 mill last q, too. I think this is a red herring. It will explode next q 'cause of win 98, and our boys in Redmond know it. Considering the enormously high pe as printed in the newspapers, and the fact that reviews are being done now so they usually try to talk the stock down, they were much less negative than normal. My guess is e of 2.25 shown for the next year, actual e of 2.95, stock price of 145 is probable, at some point during the year.