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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry J. who wrote (3011)	7/18/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 5944

I'm a wave type and my system keeps telling me that I need one more print of 12.50 or lower to complete the wave I am looking at. No matter which way i measure it, the same new low keeps being flagged. So, I sit waiting. My gut feel is that Thurs' report will cause net selling. But, if we get 12.50 print before Thurs close, I may go long at that time, don't know yet. But, I sure would not be going long just yet. my 2c

To: Larry J. who wrote (3011)	7/18/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Jim Switz	Respond to of 5944

Larry J:If last quarter is any indication, then ADPT would not warn regardless of whether or not they were going to miss. They came @ .20 against an estimate of .28 in case anyone needed to be reminded. Right, and look what happened - they got killed. From around 24 just before last earnings on Apr. 30, we've cratered almost 50%. I would hope they learned their lesson and 1)warned analysts, resulting in the Bear,Stearns/Robertson Stephens downgrades and 2) warned enough. I find it interesting to note that both downgrades were dramatic, from around 15-20 to around 8 cents, that we haven't heard of any other downgrades, and that the estimate range is now a large 8-20 cents - what's going on here? My slender positive straw is that, if ADPT management has any brains at all, they've rolled all the bad news they could into the quarter ending June so that they can lay out a positive, aggressive plan for the future in the conference call on the 23rd. Stating that the as-yet-unfulfilled Singapore layoffs have already been written off in the June quarter says to me that they're taking this tack. IF management can show some competence this time around and IF they communicate a strong, believable message and IF analysts concur that they're doing the right things, we can probably expect positive things after the announcement. The market is supposed to be placing bets on the future, after all. Will anyone be able to once again clue us into accessing the conference call? Hello, Charlie Smith? But, since the company has trained me to be extraordinarily pessimistic all year (Owwww! Stop hitting me ADPT, dammit!) I'm still gloomy and dreading Thursday afternoon. I just love this bigtime professional investing stuff, don't you?