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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (12408)	7/19/1998 5:43:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13949

But Yardeni is really off base when he writes: "The Y2K crisis is occurring because top management has ignored IT." What evidence does he have that Y2K is a "crisis"? And what evidence does he have that management has "ignored IT"? Did you know that Yardini used to be a programmer? Not just any language, but assembler (machine code)? Did you know he travels throughout the world talking to "top management" and employees alike? I didn't think so. Here's a simple question, when an ex-programmer/economist talks to the IT staff and he's told in no uncertain terms there's a big Y2K problem at that company, and then that same person talks to management and is told everything is fine, wouldn't he logically consider that as evidence that management has ignored its IT staff? Or, perhaps you wish to make the argument that management is well aware of the problem but chooses to keep everything hush hush? Either way it presents a problem, right? I doubt Yardini will get to say very much on the Today Show, so I suggest either you do more research on Yardini or you wait until his Y2K marathon in August before making comments that have no basis in fact. And, please, don't come back with "I read his web site and he didn't convince me" nonsense as that excuse could be applied to any situation. I can tell you there are people who read this thread who have had Yardini visit their company and talk to their management, so I suggest you think long and hard about how deep you want to further step into this topic. Let's just call a spade a spade. You and others have pretty much made up your minds that Y2K will be a minor annoyance at best and there's very little anyone can say or do that will convince you otherwise. Either that or you lump anyone who talks seriously about Y2K as a fanatic that thinks the world will grind to a halt and there will be blood in the streets, which makes it easy for you to sound like the voice of reason. Sorry, show me some case studies like Yardini does and you'll have my attention. But it sure is fun being a contrarian, isn't it? - Jeff

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (12408)	7/19/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: Jack McKibben	Respond to of 13949

Calculated Risk, Very well thought out and refreshing, rational response. Keep up the good work. Thanks, Jack

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (12408)	7/20/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13949

<But what about government agencies? Hasn't Rep. Horn given the Federal Government an "F" for their Y2K efforts? Well, yes, he has ... and he is wrong. Anyone interested in the discrepancies between Horn's statements and reality can review the actual Y2K data at: cio.gov Everyone can see (except possibly Rep. Horn <g>) that the federal government has made tremendous progress in the last six months and that they have even accelerated their time schedule!> Since you have such an excellent grasp on "Year 2000 issues" issues and feel Congressman Horn and Ed Yardeni (Deutsche Morgan chief economist are off base on their perception of this problem ... what's your opinion on Senator Bob Bennett who heads the Sentate Banking Committee and his feelings on the severity of Y2K and impact on the ecomony?? I look at the issue this way ... I would LOVE & WELCOME that Y2K problems to NOT be as bad as I personally foresee them to be. I can take more personal risks than some. BUT ... when it comes to my parents (who are retired) and my sister with 3 kids under 16 ... I want them to be VERY conservative over the next year or so with their assets/investments ... *just in case. <Companies and government are now addressing the issue in earnest, and making tremendous progress.> Could you please provide documentation and/or links to give me some reassurance? SEC apparently is not as re-assured as you are, based on their recent house testimony and forthcoming plans. Besides "shorting" TAVA, I'm curious as to how you would advise your* parents to invest their money ... or some widow on a fixed income? I am NOT discussing TAVA here. I'm talking about the market in general, and specifically Y2K impact on NON Y2K stocks. If you DON'T want to discuss this further on TAVA thread ... fine with me. Since you're now discussing Y2K impact on global economics and recession ... instead of just reasons for shorting TAVA ... I would be glad to participate in this particular discussion ... perhaps the "Year 2000 Impact on Stock Market and Society" thread? There are many on both of these threads who are extremely well-versed on many aspects of Y2K - economic and otherwise and would enjoy debating you. Cheryl