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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (21863)	7/19/1998 12:11:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

LG, >>>>I believe the Trans lead the way down in 87. Something to keep an eye on?<<< Yes, I believe thats something to keep a eye on and the condition of the Nasdaq a/d line and summation index. I think the Nasdaq summation will roll over before the NYSE and give an early warning sell signal. Momentum is the name of the game and momentum is very strong now. Selling is on weak volume and buying is on strong volume. I am using some e-wave and trading range targets (there is some Gann angles also) to say a top of 1200-1300. I am calling wave one the move off 6/16 lows which was 38 spx points. I'm calling wave top 3 @ 1167 7/8/98. If we pull back here to 1167 top of wave three for the Sadie Hawkins dance and do a 38 spx move because Greeny sezs something like Irving Fisher, that would put us @1205. Thats if wave one = wave 5. If wave 5 equals .618 of 1-3 we would be at 1224.50. We could have an extended wave 5 that could brings who knows where - maybe Bill's 1300. Of course all this is speculation and subject to interpretation. I would think we need a nice spike over that trendline that I posted earlier 5/96-8/97-4/98 make the throwever top. BWdik, imho, propeller beanie still in the shop -g-

To: HairBall who wrote (21863)	7/19/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 94695

more things to look at * CHARTS *** exchange2000.com

To: HairBall who wrote (21863)	7/19/1998 10:52:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

LG, Thanks for the provocative post. As I get it, you are asking four questions in one... - how do you tell when a stock will continue to go up? - how do you tell when a stock is at a peak? - how do you tell when a stock will continue to go down? - how do you tell when a stock is at a bottom? Now except for intricate, estoteric and sophisticated short term timing indicators, I believe simpler is better, WHEN IT WORKS! For me, I use 3 MAs to answer those questions... - Stocks keep moving up when they are over their 144 day time series MAs. Short term, it seems true if they are over their 17 day weighted MA. - I believe a stock has peaked when the 200 day simple MA turns down. - Stocks keep moving down when they are under their 144 day time series MAs. Short term, it seems true if they are under their 17 day weighted MA. - I believe a stock has bottomed when the 200 day simple MA turns up. Those seem to be fairly reliable indications of all the things you ask. Everything else is eyes of newt, a couple of bat wings and a frog leg or two (tastes like chicken). As far as MR MARKET... I use VGY almost exclusively to say whether the general markets are moving up or down. The VGY seems to lead the DOW and other indices. Based on the above: - VGY is diverging greatly from DOW to the downside. - VGY is still going up but below 144 TSMA and 200 SMA seems to be in a process of peaking. - DOW is at 144 TSMA and well above 200 SMA which continues strongly up. For the more esoteric stuff, the Williams A/D on the DOW is diverging considerably to the downside with the DOW... this is an indication of internal weakness and is supposed to be a sell signal according to Larry Williams. Unfortunately, I have not been able to find a comparable over the past 15 years on the DOW... So this tells me THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT... and I hope that is not saying that this time it is worse than what we have ever seen! Thanks again. Bill