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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harold S. who wrote (25968)	7/19/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

when the market prices a stock it looks months down the road I would hope they look farther out than that. I think that the continued stacking and rates may not be factored in. Especially since the rates are not in the the "sell side analyst" EPS projections yet. Institution do their own analysis "buy side analysis", so maybe they have current projections, but I bet they are not buying yet. Nobody knows how much is factored in to present stock prices, I am saying that it appears that more bad news is coming. My opinion is that sector will not move up until oil price moves and even perhaps not until indicators show rig demand improving.

To: Harold S. who wrote (25968)	7/19/1998 11:24:00 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I suppose we should also consider that if earnings really mattered, then the companies showing excellent year-over-year results, with increases in firm orders, would not have gone into the toilet along with land and shallow water drillers. For every GLM which comments on softness in the GOM, there is a VRC or a FGII, which continues to show "bandwidth"-type growth. Teddy's information should not be ignored. Big Dog's inside perspective on rig stacking should not be ignored. A separate issue, however, is whether the companies which are not stacking rigs or competing in a shrinking shallow water GOM market will remain depressed. Perhaps for awhile. But the market does sometimes awaken to the fact that not all companies in a sector are created equal.