To: CLK who wrote (39 ) 7/19/1998 2:36:00 PM From: marcos Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 90
Well, I think the barrels per share in reserves is the attractive thing here, but a person has to be careful not to start thinking of them as gallons at the pump - these sands and shales do not give up cheap oil. There is more oil in the Athabaskan oil sands of Alberta than in all of Saudi Arabia, but you can't just drill a hole and pump it up. The high costs relative to current PoO gives you great leverage. Sooner or later, some crisis in the Middle East or elsewhere will raise oil prices. From oilworld oilworld.com you can get to this very ... uh, stridently written opus on ME politics and the PoO webcom.com and from there to 'Chaostan' chaostan.com Well, while that guy paints a more vivid and immediate picture than I am ready to accept for real, I think he does have a point. Something will happen, sometime. The spectrum of political stability of oil producers in declining order likely goes something like USA, Canada, Australia, M‚xico, Venezuela. So leverage to high-cost reserves in those countries are worth something just on account of that stability, imho. Re the Euro and the US$ - yes, imho the Euro will compete with the dollar as a reserve currency, more than any other currency since Nixon stripped the dollar of its gold connection. I just lurked the whole thread here, and see it mentioned that this Stuart project is a do-or-die medium-term situation - well, I don't see how that's true, as long as the companies are competently managed they will continue to hold the oil shale in the ground even if the project gets mothballed. Oil will come back, it's not going out of style, the current overproduction is a small percentage of world daily consumption. It wouldn't take much to upset the equation.