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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (3444)	7/21/1998 3:37:00 AM
From: Javelyn Bjoli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

A notebook battery pack will typically have 6, 9, or 12 Li-ion cells, depending on cell size and pack configuration. Very typical configurations would be 3 series x 3 parallel or 4 series x 3 parallel 18650 cylindrical cells. A high runner model of notebook might run half a million to a million pieces, unless you are one of the top vendors, then maybe a few million. I don't know the size of the total market, but I think something like 20-30M notebooks per year worldwide sounds reasonable. I just don't think your derivation makes sense. Isn't the number of notebooks sold last year available somewhere? It would make a good conservative estimate for next year. >Lets see, laptops 42% of 17M is 7.3M cells per quarter as of last >year; using 3 cells per battery, I get 2.4M batteries per Q. This >works out to about 9.6M Li-ion batteries (3 cell equivalent) per >year. Since Li-ion was still somewhat less than 50% of the laptop >market last year, this implies a total laptop market of about 20-21M >batteries per year. This is close to the 22-24M forecast I was >making for calendar 1999. These numbers support my earlier forecast >and analysis. Does this seem reasonable?