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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Kahn who wrote (6107)	7/20/1998 4:44:00 AM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Bob echoed much of his recent commentary - high PE, energizer bunny bull market, does not see bear market in the autumn time period (which is the limit of his visibility.) He also commented about the test last weekend of the Nasdaq market with the simulation of the year 2000 rollover. Apparently, the test was a complete success providing a great deal of confidence that the market operation (ie buying, selling, clearing) will work properly as the date changes to the year 2000. -- Alan

To: Dave Kahn who wrote (6107)	7/20/1998 6:06:00 AM
From: wooden ships	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Dave: I did not hear the entire complement of MoneyTalk this weekend. However, it is true, as you report, that Brinker paid heed to the frothy aspects of this market with seemingly repet- itive mention of the S&P 500's unprecedented price to earnings multiple of 25(based on trailing earnings), especially as this starkly contrasts with a multiple of seven at the "nadir of the bear market of 1974." In this wise, Brinker re-echoed his critique of the zany specu- lative mania presently afflicting "internet stocks" such as Amazon, Yahoo, and now Broadcast.com. This last Brinker noted as having gained a mere 248.61% on its first day of trading and thereby sur- passing the prior record of a 220% gain recorded by another IPO, which has since dipped well below its initial offering price. (Our worthy I2 may refresh memory here as to particulars.) The typically wry story told by Warren Buffett to illuminate this pipedream "intenet stock" trading frenzy did not escape Brinker's notice this weekend. Mr. Buffett tells of teaching a class of pupils and asking them, "What is an internet stock worth?" Any pupil who dared answer this question, Buffett dryly notes, would promptly flunk the course. That being said, Brinker re-affirmed his patented description of the current "Energizer Bunny market" and did not offer, in my listening, remarks to contradict directly this characterization. With respect to the small cap market- the subject of a recent post by our own irrepressible jocose genius, Mr. Alan Whirl- wind- Brinker, in response to a caller's cry of undervaluation, announced his own preferred weighting of 70 per cent big caps to 30 per cent small caps. Noting that investors, anxious about financial implosions and troubles in the Far East and elswhere, are likely to incline toward known highly liquid, albeit highly valued, big caps over the relatively illiquid small fry, Brinker, expressing his inclination to "go with the flow," saw little reason at this juncture to defy this evident trend. On the other hand, with a weighting of 30 per cent in small caps, Brinker asserted the capacity of his portfolio to register any change in the pre- vailing current should such a fortuitous circumstance manifest itself within the small cap market. Continuing to eschew the Japanese market and to chide the Japanese elite for incompetent and corrupt management of their country, Brinker blasted that current crowd as the gov- ernmental equivalent of Mack Sennett's Keystone Cops of yore.