To: Jim Patterson who wrote (52555 ) 7/20/1998 10:38:00 AM From: SecularBull Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
TO ALL: Jim, I'm glad to see that you had to go that far back to find anything on which you might be able to attack my argument. The fact is that you really don't have any facts to support your own points, but for the benefit of our fellow threaders, I'll defend mine. 1) When I said that DELL might be extended, I didn't mean it was ripe for a 30-50% correction as you have suggested. I specifically meant a short term "over-bought" (for lack of a better term) condition that could see DELL drop 15%, perhaps. However, based on this morning's sharp recovery, I can say that the probability of a 15% correction is less likely. 2) As for the "New Paradigm", I would point out that never before in history (as you are so fond of quoting) has there been a similar period of recovery, economic expansion, in a low-inflation environment. Also, in case you didn't notice (which is an evident possibility), we are in a global economy, where the growth of US companies has much, much further to go than before. 3) The higher multiple is reflected in the price because the vastly superior direct model, coupled with superb execution, is beating the sh*t out of the competition, and the market expects that this will continue. Now, you'll say something like "Well that's as long as the continue to execute, but what happens if they don't?" To that I say, we can sit on the sidelines talking about what-ifs all day long and not make any money, or we can bet on a proven company with proven management. I'll take the latter, fully understanding that good execution of the direct model is the key. I have seen nothing to indicate that management is incapable of continuing to execute well. When I do see it, I'll be the first one heading for the door. Regards, LoD