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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (6318)	7/20/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

A question for semi equipment historians.... I seem to remember that during the big move up around 1995, there were something like over 200 fabs planned in every corner of the world. Needless to say, most of these did not materialize. Not that I am a semi eq "Pro" now but I was definitely a rookie in this sector back then. Anyone in the business could probably project an enormous over supply glut if all these fabs indeed break ground. My question is how many new fabs are planned today, assuming the semi industry will recover sooner or later? Further more, what is the projection for cap exp $$$ for these projects in the aggregate? If we find answers for these questions, may be we can compare this downturn with the last one. Ramsey

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (6318)	7/21/1998 2:27:00 AM
From: MarkFin	Respond to of 10921

Herschel, You ended your post by stating that one round of layoffs can lead to another in 6 months. From working in the equipment segment of the industry, I can tell you that many of us have already reached the second round of layoffs, about 3-4 months after the first. The hope is that we have aligned our expenses with the lower levels of revenue we will see. The problem with the second layoff is that the "deadwood" was pruned in the first one and true "talent" is lost in the second. This will make the recovery period more painful but welcomed, nevertheless. Mark

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (6318)	7/21/1998 4:14:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Herschel, re. <<any comments on the concept that the onset of layoffs may be a fairly good turnaround indicator?>> Another good question for this extremely cyclical industry would be what sort of indicator will spot the top of the cycle. Secondaries and placements of convertible bond issues might be as good as any. Consider the peak of the last cycle, which occured in late August to early October 1997: 20 August 1997, Lam sold $310 M of convertible bonds. In October 1997, Speedfam announced a secondary, and Asyst completed a private offering of stock. So maybe one could time the cycle in this industry well enough by simply: * selling when equity is sold * buying when there are layoffs I don't know how perfect this would be. I suspect that buying on news of layoffs might be a surer thing than selling on news of secondaries, since the cyclical expansion might possibly go longer. The expansion from Oct 96 to Oct 97 was a pretty short one.