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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (6326)	7/21/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

>>AMAT was the clear leader in 1996, and it's the clear leader in 1998. So if nothing else were different, I would expect that the multiples of AMAT to fall to the botton of its own range just as the other stocks fell to the bottom of their own ranges.<< I hate to rant, but I'm getting a little bit sick of this "Applied can do no wrong" stuff. For instance, right now everyone is praying for chipmakers to start buying equipment for copper to pull the equipment industry back up. Applied Materials DOES NOT HAVE a copper fill deposition tool. Semitool does. Novellus does. CVC does. Applied does not. We could see 9 copper pilot lines this year, and AMAT probably won't be in any of them, at least for fill. Yes, they are the clear leader in 1998. It is by no means certain that they will still be the clear leader in 2000. If it were my money, I'd be spending it in parts of the sector where valuations match earnings a little better. Katherine

To: Q. who wrote (6326)	7/21/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Re: "Others have posted, in effect, that "it's different this time", because the stock market as a whole has had a multiple expansion. Maybe that's true. But then why hasn't the multiple expansion of the market applied to the smaller equipment players, too? They are, after all, still trading near the bottom of their historical multiple ranges." The smaller semi equip companies are not the only small companies which have not been granted P/E multiple expansion. In fact, I've heard that the ratio of large cap multiples to small cap multiples is at an historical high. Best wishes, I2

To: Q. who wrote (6326)	7/21/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 10921

<AMAT was the clear leader in 1996, and it's the clear leader in 1998. So if nothing else were different, I would expect that the multiples of AMAT to fall to the botton of its own range just as the other stocks fell to the bottom of their own ranges.> IMO things ARE different... ie. AMAT is much more entrenched as "numero uno" of the group than it was 2 years ago... hence even more of a "blue chip" premium. <My point was that AMAT's multiples, compared to AMAT's own historical multiple range, is not low, whereas other equipment companies are near the bottom of their own ranges.> If this downturn is more scary... ie. this asian flu thing... then the small guys are MUCH riskier right? DAK