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To: marc chatman who wrote (26099)	7/21/1998 9:14:00 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

CAM earns .73, in line with Zacks. biz.yahoo.com

To: marc chatman who wrote (26099)	7/21/1998 10:51:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

marc; RE: XON - ''BINGO'' - decrease in rev & earn's & they're a hero ? The major Oils show year over year decreases in revenue & earnings, but meet analyst estimates and they're a hero ? - and the damn stock goes UP on this news, while TDW (another pig of the patch) rises from the ''ashes'' of the all ready ''DOA'' Boat sector and hey ! -- all Tidewater does is make $62 Million , $1.05 per share on revenue of $284 million which for this PE of 6 stock was a 32% increase in earnings, 32% gain in EPS and a 24% gain in revenue; all while doing business in a negative commodity market (to say the least...) and in the most long ago written off sub-sector. And what will this get TDW today ? - probably not much..... I guess this is what you guys are trying to pound into my thick skull; that even some of these great fundamental numbers will go totally unrewarded in the face of a negative crude enviroment - asCaninius Maximus says, - '' it's the price of crude - stupid''... Well, short term I can not argue; the market is not going to react short term in today's crude enviroment to these stellar numbers in face of this crude/commodity enviroment. I will not argue with this short term arguement. My point is that when we do get a substantial overall market correction; and I believe we will get a substantial one... this sector hopefully will be in the catbird's seat finally; perhaps with crude at $17-$18 and coming off these admirable numbers in light of the crude enviroment that exists; there will be a spotlight shinned brightly upon the 'patch and there will be a whole lotta money looking to rotate somewhere... My point is that this sector at that time, will be heads & shoulders fundamentally speaking above any other available sector, then and finally then - the 'patch will have it's day in the sun. Unfortunately; one must have a mid- to longterm focus here. As these numbers continue to come in, I also see limited downside from here - 5-7% , maybe a 10% blip with a deadcat bounce... With these kind of numbers from companies like TDW - where are they going to sell off to ? Is TDW with all their cash & no debt, buying back stock etc. going to sell for a PE of 3 or 4 ? - I don't think so. For the prior poster who wants to ''wait out TDW for the true bottom'' - my point is that on a selective basis (keyword here is selective) with a stock like TDW for instance; where is it going to go from here? - a PE of Zero ? On some of these stocks- we are getting some ''freebies'' lately. TDW is in this book, the sellofs of some high flyers like CXIPY or VTS with their tremendous backlogs and earnings and strong niche's are solid bottom choices - IMHO. One is clearly more likely to miss a 20% upside move in stocks like EVI, TDW, VTS, CXIPY; than to risk a 20% downturn. On these selectively chosen stocks the risk vs. reward; upside vs. downside ratios, clearly support buying now at these levels for buy and hold investors; for traders - you're on your own... There are some incredible long term values here like TDW, EVI, CDG, companies selling for single digit PE's on trailing earnings or single digit PE's off of 1999 EPS estimates with 30-50% growth prospects...amazing. This is not to say that some companies that have PE's in the 20's, high debt and low backlogs etc. might not have more downside than the low PE, low debt, solid earners like TDW or CDG.... time will tell. Sure is frustrating to see the great performances by these companies go unrewarded, while the major Oils and the overall market churns forward on much less exciting performance... PS, marc -- rule No. 316 is a reality unfortunately; crude drops and the patch drops, crude rises and the patch stays put...or even falls some more ? Projected higher crude prices is bad news for the Transpo's & Airlines, but is not good news for the patch - go figure ?