Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5228)	7/22/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9980

Mike, Sorry about the confusion. It does seem like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth. While I am not immune to bouts of this <G>, in this instance I was merely stating an ideal case in one paragraph and some daunting realities in the other. The realities are that there are some tremendous imbalances in the global and US economies. The trade deficit, the investment flows, the currency levels and the disproportionate amount of demand being carried by the Unites States consumer. All of these come at a time of financial crisis in Asia and against a background of threatening inflation in the US. Could these all be resolved benignly? I believe they could as I stated in my earlier post, but this would require a large amount of good fortune. The last few months I have become increasingly doubtful that the resolution of this would come without pain in the markets. My worries have grown as I watch the US equity markets continue to rise with disregard, in my opinion, to the gathering clouds. Mr. Greenspan made two salient points yesterday. First he mentioned that corporate profits, contrary to the predictions of many Wall Street analysts, cannot continue to rise at the extraordinary rate of recent years. Secondly, he mentioned that the greater threat lies in inflation and not recession. I believe both his warnings are very timely for investors. I am very circumspect about predicting the market. There are always many possible outcomes and sometimes the one chosen can be influenced by tiny events, such as the flap of a butterfly's wing. I would only say that, by my determination, the risks have risen lately and that I personally have lowered my level of commitment to US equities.