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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (5128)	7/22/1998 8:21:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi JZ, That graph tells the story quite well. From what I've been able to see since returning to the real world, this latest rally needs to flesh out a bit of it will fizzle. I sensed the problem with the P/E+ interest rate component some time ago. I believe that it has to do with using the 13 week treasury (which has been relatively stable) VS something like the 30 year. It might give Relative Valuation a better perspective. LT interest rates have fallen quite a bit in the last 12 month or so and would have helped to stablize the Relative Valuation figure. It'll take a trip to the Milw. Public Library to gather the data from 1982 to present. I also plan on adding the number of issues traded on a weekly basis on the NYSE and ASE at that time. Those two will be added to the NASDAQ data that I already have and be combined in the ZEAL component. ZEAL has only risen way into the High Risk area twice in my database; 1983 and 1993. Both times a surge of IPOs served to dilute the market overall and send it flat to downward for 18 months. I really do plan to get this done - even though it's been a LONG TIME since noticing the problems. Thanks again for that great chart. BTW, in what software did you assemble the graph? I'm trying to wean myself from DOS 123 and learn something newer (either Excel or Lotus for Win). Any recommendations? Best regards, Tom