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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30091)	7/21/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, what's your opinion of buying 5-6 month out calls (or selling puts) in the oil service sector, maybe market leaders like SLB, EVI, VRC, FGII ? The whole sector has taken an ungodly hammering (down 1/3 in 2 months). Some of the p/e's are less than half the s&p 500 even though the forward growth is expected to be much better. The API crude numbers today will probably be a big negative tomorrow and calls may be coming down.. I'am thinking that 5-6 months will be enough to bring S/D in balance and show the great values in the sector. You would think the world was going back to the horse and buggy. Whatcha think ? Thanks, John

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30091)	7/22/1998
From: Wildstar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Michael, The equipment companies are building products for an industry that is over the hill as far as its growth rate is concerned. Buy puts on any dead cat bounce in Applied Materials (AMAT) and Novellus (NVLS). I was ready to buy a whole lot of AMAT if it hit low/mid teens. Is this a bad idea? Conventional wisdom states that gorillas like AMAT use chip industry downturns to gain market share and spend on R&D, thereby maintaining margins during the next upturn. Do you think that this won't happen during the next upturn? When do you think the upturn might occur? Do you have any thoughts on CYMI or ASYT?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30091)	7/22/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Respond to of 132070

Michael, congratulations on your recent put recommendations on chip companies. Looks like your projection on the Y2K effect on software companies is also taking place. Must be time to quit buying and fix the problems with good old "roll up your sleeves and just change the code". Did you hear Mike Holland this morning recommending to hide in the oil stock arena? I could be hiding longer than expected in my natural gas play,<ggg> Joan