To: Darla who wrote (2888 ) 7/22/1998 10:23:00 PM From: CanynGirl Respond to of 10081
I think you misunderstood. I'm not making any statements as to how many subscribers they will get based on their spending. Also, I don't think anyone is predicting $400 million in sales for '99. (As for AMZN spending $39m, I believe that is for Sales & Marketing). All companies/products are different. I have no idea how much they will need to spend per customer as this is really a new business. Originally, I was using my pre-programmed mature company model which was wrong. Sea Otter was on the right track. Growth companies today are spending about 20 cents on the dollar to start. If you look at AMTD, you will see that they predict that their cost/new customer should go down to (if I remember correctly) around $125 for the year. Initially, you have a high number because there is a delay from Ad to purchase. We used to use 3-4 months. But I'm sure it's different for different industries/products. Eventually it becomes a reasonable number. Also, don't forget, EGRP,AMTD, AMZN are all spending big because of competition. There were 30 online brokers at the beginning of this year. AMZN knew BKS was coming online. Although I'm sure GMGC will have lots of competition, right now they don't. Also, we must remember, Advertising is not the holy grail of customer acquisition. It's just air cover for the resellers. In my experience, humble as it is, channel programs are far more effective. In, any case, I'm not predicting 400,000 subscribers next year. It would be nice, but that's not and never has been my point. Frankly, I'm not expecting postive earnings next year and hope that they don't have them. I want to see them spend on growth and brand building. I'm not sure why you say AOL isn't a fair comparision but have no problem with AMTD and AMZN? As for Intel, I threw that in since the majority of their money is spent on branding. And, my understanding from GMGC is that the priority for their advertising is brand building.