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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: umbro who wrote (11424)	7/22/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I think that whatever investment institutions and large investors still have in Amazon.com will be cleared out within the next week or so. The analysts and media may put a bullish face on things long enough to sell at a healthy profit. Then the stock retreats. Maybe it will be down without a further move up at all. Here's some of the "rest of the story" that didn't get told in the press release and shallow media reports; Shawn Gumpolt (sp? - not too sure about this name), at B.T. Alex Brown, asked about "how price elastic will customers be . . ." as the company moves forward and how will the Amazon deal with portals and become more of a portal site itself. A nice portion of Amazon's marketing expense has to go to pay Yahoo! and other portal sites for banner ads. The recent arrangements with Intuit is even more costly per pop and takes a fixed, long-term commitment. Bezos did not answer the question about customer price elasticity directly, either because he didn't want to give out the information or he didn't know. Recent studies by Coopers & Lybrand and Georgia Tech Graduate dept. indicate that competition on the internet is expected to grow dramatically as the ease with which price comparisons are made is facilitated greatly compared to traditional shopping methods. Bezos did go on to say that he saw "lots of room for new portals to be established. I do not see Amazon becoming the primary source of revenue for any of the portals." "We don't feel that after three years that we will be done with portals." . . meaning Amazon.com will continue to rely on them to do advertising. My thoughts are that no single point source will gain dominance on the internet. The same basic argument that applies to brokerages applies here. All brokerages aren't going to be absorbed and taken over by E-Trade.com. Why do some analysts think that things will be 180 degrees different with Amazon.com? Aren't there now just a few e-brokerages who "control" a large percentage of on-line brokerage? Does that mean that their firm is barred from doing business on-line? Does that mean Datek will soon pu their firm out of business, maybe in just 2-5 years? Give me a break! Quit the wild speculation just because you don't know enough about this new industry. The analysts that make such assumptions should be sent back to B-school to consult with their professors who must have taught them from "the black magic book of business voodo". ----------- Break to another post.

To: umbro who wrote (11424)	7/23/1998 9:59:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN options report for 07/23/98 AMZN price: 129.875 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 113.39 OI = 11352 VOL = 1105 call price: 142.94 OI = 15879 VOL = 1740 consensus: 133.01 R = 0.7 R = 0.6 Options Forecast for: SEP put price: 104.94 OI = 1157 VOL = 169 call price: 148.09 OI = 501 VOL = 74 consensus: 123.58 R = 2.3 R = 2.3 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 102.32 OI = 2902 VOL = 43 call price: 149.11 OI = 5884 VOL = 47 consensus: 138.40 R = 0.5 R = 0.9 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 94.44 OI = 2204 VOL = 32 call price: 158.24 OI = 3541 VOL = 116 consensus: 138.42 R = 0.6 R = 0.3 net long/short: 0.82 mil. i.v. for AUG = 0.938 i.v. for SEP = 0.918 i.v. for OCT = 0.903 i.v. for JAN = 0.831 Implied vols. dropped, esp. in Aug. from 0.989 to 0.938. Oct vols actually picked up a bit from 0.871 to 0.903. Generally option trade volumes were lower, in spite of the decent level of volume AMZN, and given what turned out to be a rather wide range day, even for AMZN, though ths spike up early in the day, was over before it started. Lots of puts trading in Sept., with a high put/call ratio. Contrarian thinking would say they're wrong. No prediction for tomorrow. Looks like a new ballgame, and it'll take a few days to settle things out. The odds would seem to be in favor of selling pressure next week, and the following due to employee options exercise. Also, I think AMZN may have trouble staying strong if the overall market weakens, esp. the NDX 100.

To: umbro who wrote (11424)	7/24/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN options report for 07/24/98 AMZN price: 124.250 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 110.41 OI = 14887 VOL = 4376 call price: 135.51 OI = 18278 VOL = 6243 consensus: 124.99 R = 0.8 R = 0.7 Options Forecast for: SEP put price: 103.43 OI = 1517 VOL = 510 call price: 144.43 OI = 629 VOL = 529 consensus: 114.37 R = 2.4 R = 1.0 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 98.52 OI = 3556 VOL = 205 call price: 142.42 OI = 6613 VOL = 647 consensus: 129.26 R = 0.5 R = 0.3 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 91.81 OI = 2478 VOL = 159 call price: 151.38 OI = 3512 VOL = 363 consensus: 128.06 R = 0.7 R = 0.4 net long/short: 0.66 mil. i.v. for AUG = 0.881 i.v. for SEP = 0.928 i.v. for OCT = 0.828 i.v. for JAN = 0.825 Option vols. dropped, they were 0.98, 0.93, 0.87 and 0.86 for Aug, Sept, Oct, and Jan. The Sept. options have kept their premium, but the rest have backed off a bit. The bearish in the volume of the Sept. options has shrunk, and in fact most of the options are beginning to took a little too bullish. Too many call sellsers is all, maybe.