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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (11529)	7/23/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: put2rich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<What more needs to be said?> William, amzn is dropping 4 pt now. how much more dropping before you jump out to protect your gain. just a friendly question, since I consider you a rare educated bull on this thread. Thanks

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (11529)	7/23/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

<<<Barnes and Noble reported a sequential online sales increase of 14% this quarter, and Amazon 33%. What more needs to be said?>>> I think the 14% increment for BKS was from Q4 to Q1. BKS really did not advertise/promote much in Q1. Q2 revenues will be quite interesting, but I think they aren't due out for another month or so. BKS revenue growth should exceed AMZN's 33%. But since the BKS growth will come from a smaller base, it's more difficult to know how to interpret the numbers. Probably will be best to put the BKS numbers into the context of the history of AMZN's early revenue growth. Of course, AMZN had no meaningful competition until Q2 '98, so it may be unrealistic to expect BKS to match AMZN's record in 1997. Anyway, the earlier AMZN numbers are at post #10005 on this thread..... www3.techstocks.com Best Regards, Tom

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (11529)	7/23/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: John Ke	Respond to of 164684

Hi William, I followed your posts on the YHOO thread a while back and credit you with saving me a considerable amount of money. You can figure out how. Anyway, your presence is not only welcome, but required here. However, although I'm abstinent on the long term prospects for Yahoo!, I am very confident that the long term prospects for Amazon.com are poor. I look forward to your future posts. For the time being though, you said: Barnes and Noble reported a sequential online sales increase of 14% this quarter, and Amazon 33%. What more needs to be said? BKS will release Q2 results on August 18th, and there's a good chance they will experience higher sequential growth than AMZN on a percentage basis. Of course they are still way behind Amazon size wise. The comparison will be slightly skewed due to the mismatch in reporting periods... AMZN Q v. Q is Oct-Dec v. Jan-Mar BKS Q v. Q is Nov-Jan v. Feb-Apr No bulls seemed to think the mismatch mattered last quarter when AMZN blew BKS away. But we'll have to see what happens this time if BKS beats AMZN. It's worth noting that BKS's advertising campaign didn't begin in earnest until the current quarter. The BKS on-line revenue growth is perhaps the most important piece of fundamental information coming up as far as determining the future possibilities for Amazon. John

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (11529)	7/23/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: llamaphlegm	Respond to of 164684

William: Enjoy the ride. LP

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (11529)	7/23/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

AOL's customers can't switch suppliers ten times a day within five minutes. Simplistic analogy. Amazon's costs are growing faster than their sales or margins. Sales are not expected to grow much this quarter, and have already slowed from previous growth levels. When you put together higher costs, sharply slowing sales, (this is just becoming apparent as we move toward the end of the year). Jeff Bezo said "It is extremely unlikely that amazon will be able to maintain current growth rates... It is extremely unlikely that we can maintain market share levels." Jeff emphasized the words "extremely unlikely" in his discussion with analysts. Go figure.