To: deeno who wrote (12871 ) 7/23/1998 8:09:00 PM From: JMD Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
deeno, the M/L guy is a little hard to stomach at this point. He's got all the buzz words going: quality of earnings, visibility, difficulty of assessing future earnings potential, and so forth. I'm bending over backwards to be fair but here goes. The Mighty Q's balance sheet ISN'T a slam dunk to cruise through; it is in fact one complicated mother [technical financial term]. I'm still pondering its mysterious inner workings and don't mind admitting that without Gregg Powers explanations, I'd be lost on a few of the entries and I majored in this kind of crapola. Added to that is the fact that trying to arrive at any kind of 'steady state' earnings potential is hindered by what I would call an extraordiary number of extraordinary items: the Q changed royalty recognition accounting procedures last quarter, they took the Nextel hit this quarter, plus they've got the QPE subsidiary with Sony and did some swapping of accounting of warranty product costs between the sub and the parent, etc. Anyway, this is not the stuff of Financial Accounting 1A. Okay, so now I'm a reasonable and equitable guy right? Horsefeathers. The M/L guy is knocking down a couple of hundred K to make sense of this stuff. I just loved the "difficult to assess future growth potential"--excuse me? What the hell is he getting paid for? When Warren Buffett purchased (actually stole) Dairy Queen last year, I'm guessing he didn't ask the M/L guy to analyze its growth potential cause that's what Warren Buffett does: he figures out that this is growing like hell won't have it and that the price doesn't reflect that growth and bellies up to the bar. The fact that the Q is confusing is one reason it's been trading at one times revenue, which in damn near any business should give our M/L friend a huge clue, as in "maybe there's something here--top line growth blistering, price low" duh. Step 2 would be to figure out why the top line hasn't been translating to the bottom quite so smoothly and then make a determination. Instead, this guy moans that "it's all so difficult, I'm gonna vote neutral". deeno, I'm one prejudiced dude on the Q but I swear if this had been my "analysis" of Ericy, Batwing, or the local bowling alley, my biz school prof would have handed me my head. You buy, sell, or whatever on any basis you choose--but not on this. Bottom line: it's a non event. Next case. Regards, Mike Doyle