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To: johnlea who wrote (36455)7/23/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: johnlea  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53903
 
if you are a bear, you'll agree with the below statements. if you are a bull, you will think this comments are full of bull.

IMHO. . . i do not see how dram prices are going to go up substantially in the next year or two or even longer. the declining costs of dram and all the other widgets that go into a pc is the ONLY reason sub $1k computers are in the market and is the ONLY reason computer sales are showing unit increases over last year.

so what happens if chip prices go up substantially? you can kiss the sub $1k computer good bye, and if this happens, you can kiss sales good bye, and if this happens, chips prices will drop again. to my very simple mind, this is a very obvious macro economic market cycle.

the REAL challenge of the chip makers is to get yield ever increasing so that they can turn a profit at low selling prices. while many companies will do this (mu being one of them), it will be a long time before mu or any other chip company in the dram business sees anything but thin margins on their products.

just my thoughts.