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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11965)	7/23/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: put2rich	Respond to of 18691

Roger, if in a bear storm even good p/e profitable oil exploration company got hit too , or depending on crude price? some internuts may be immune? most people expect amzn insiders/employees/newly acquired firms would sell stocks in the next 2 weeks; so may be a help for the shorters? Regards,

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11965)	7/23/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 18691

Roger, Certainly this board being quiet does not bode well for the bull run in the short term. Selling should continue tomorrow morning and things can get ugly. However, I noticed that Nasdaq was trying to make a nice rebound this morning and if not for the bad earning news from BA, things could have been different. However, I am pretty confident that the market will rebound and the tech will lead the way because: 1) money flow is still very positive; 2) people still see US market as safe haven; 3) there are numerous greedy people out there waiting to buy on dips to make huge profits and there are lists of fund managers who are eager to pour hot $$$ into the top blue chips to try to get a second chance to catch up with the index; 4) the effect of Greenspan fart usually does not last for more than 1-2 weeks...Anyway, not time to worry about a serious correction yet. larry!

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11965)	7/23/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: B Tate	Respond to of 18691

Roger Not only is it quiet, its even getting pretty mean spirited in some locations. Surely a sign of tension. Opening on Fri will be exciting. bt

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11965)	7/23/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: Timoteo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger-I think the Greenspan warning may be sinking in but everyone is caught between getting out of the market and missing a quick 200 or 300 point rebound and a move to 10000 or staying in and feeling the real correction that might take 1000 points off the top. As you know, the market could lose half its value and still be in the average historical valuation range. I've guessed the top and missed before. Now that I am only short AMZN and ZITL and fully invested long, we may finally see the big one:). I doubt it however, since John Q. Public will probably just see it as a buying opportunity and continue to pour money into stock funds and the fund managers will contiune to pour money into liquid large caps and names. When the economy finally runs out of steam and we cycle into recession is when I see the correction happening. I think it will be long and painful as cycles of selling to protect equity take the market lower and lower. Technology has made it very easy for billions of dollars to move effortlessly from stocks to bonds to money instruments, etc. For America's and Al Gore's sake, I hope it won't happen before 2000, but with all the millenium prophets of doom, who knows. Best Wishes, Timoteo