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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Intel Trader who wrote (26397)	7/24/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

Its worse than a bear oil market. It appears that the oil market is going to go bankrupt. Oil will soon be under $10. on its way to $5. and many oil dependant countries are about to fold. This is Armagedon folks, its all part of the year 2000 plan. The world as we once knew it is about to end. Funny thing is, oil looks to be down .01, not much of a drop, but the OSX is still tanking. Seems to be a pattern here.

To: Intel Trader who wrote (26397)	7/24/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

I don't think the term "bear market" does this justice. CDG is now down 75% from its 52 week high. I think the latest definition of a "bear market" is a 20% decline. I'm not sure about your heavy sell-off theory. I think it is just as possible that we see a long basing period of perhaps 6 months to 1 year. You are correct about everyone waiting for any uptick to sell. And that just supports the argument that there won't be any u-turn and strong move up.

To: Intel Trader who wrote (26397)	7/24/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Intel Trader...valid points and I now am a believer .... This is dead money here. On Buy recommendations and positive earnings upgrades we get a sell off ! I cleared all margin balance and I am waiting for levels that do not make sense to me... I now will not argue any longer that SLB can not go to 55 or OSX 60 ! There is no logic here, I overestimated the fund managers ability to resist these levels. They are not touching anything here. CLB a premium service company was up $1 1/2 early this a.m. rebounding above a support level of $24 and now has tanked - this was it for me. This company actually should do better in low crude oil prices due to their technology. It has very strong fund following. Unfortunately CNBC just reported a major fund DUMPING their driller & service stocks and that other institutional sellers seemed to be following. No sense getting caught in an avalanche. There could be the turn on a dime, but I don't see it without crude news showing significant OPEC production cuts and with last week great API news turning a ''360'' into this weeks bad news... there is no reason not to wait it out... I do not see ANY institutional oil patch buying going on - and I don't think I will for a while. No stock is safe here. I only liquidated margin positions and am very happy to own these companies at tremendous valuations, but no reason to swim upstream here. Let the fundies bleed out the last of their holdings as they are clearly doing then dive in. I now agree that we could see another 10-20% --- and ohhhh those words were hard to type ! Can't fight reality, there comes a point where the line must be drawn... I will wait for another 15% from here and will buy with 50% of my remaining funds and keep some cash left for Armageddon ! Not a bad point to ''start'' buying if one is entering this sector now; I would go 40-50% now and save at least 2 more sorte's at any accompanying 15% sell offs from today's levels. When this does hit.........my God, is there going to be a run ! I still believe that this will lead to an OPEC move that will create a whipsaw effect just about the time we start reading that Asia is recovering; when the demand increases and these countries have to buy crude and refill what has to be empty capacity - this is going to bust. Just no sense in fighting this trend. EVI & CDG going to new levels of sub $30 & $20 proves to me that there are just not any buyers - period. We are also going to get an overall market correction and it will be substantial (not DOW 4000 LT - but I owe you a drink on the driller call) and when we see sector rotation - hell hath seen no fury... I will be in calls to leverage the recovery. As of today folks; reality has been thrown out the window - can't fight it any longer.