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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yakov Lurye who wrote (5776)	7/25/1998 4:58:00 AM
From: Patrick Grinsell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

<<Patrick, #5 on your list is Monster 3D, not Monster 3D II.>> That's exactly my point. :) I haven't seen Voodoo1 on any best-selling lists since Voodoo2 came out. We must have hit a good price point. Also worth noting is the fact that Diamond has been consistently outselling Creative and other brands are not even showing as a blip on the charts. Until July, Creative has also been significantly lower priced. I think this shows just how important the in-store retail channel is. I guess nobody is going to hunt down that rebated Wicked 3d online like I would. Why do I think it so important that Voodoo1 is making a comeback? It ain't because of the revenue I can tell you that. It represents the fact that there is a sweet spot between $100-$150 which stimulates buying. This is good for both Voodoo2 and Banshee. I think we will see Diamond and Creative boards at the $150 level by 4Q. The fact that Best Data is $169 is cool, but the majority of our consumer suckers...uh, I mean buyers...are going to be walking into the stores and looking for the mainstream brands. The fact that STB is undercutting everybody in CompUSA gives me a fuzzy feeling. If they make earnings this quarter it will be because the lower price point is allowing for a greater sellthrough just like what appears to be happening with Voodoo1. Lower price points are not necessarily something that 3dfx can control. Diamond will take it in the shorts this quarter because of price reductions but 3dfx should be relatively unaffected if they stick to their 5% price reduction plan. According to the company the %5 should be offset by cost reductions. I wish I had a subscription to PCData to get weekly numbers. It would be much easier to correlate trends with pricing. FYI, average redemption for rebate offers is somewhere between %15-%30. So for diamond, a $50 rebate really only costs them about $15. <<That was $129 for Monster 3D = Voodoo Graphics, not V2!>> Too bad Sun Tzu 7/24: <<"I'm down 2 points, but I'm not worried because TDFX will be in 40s by the new year". (really no personal shot here I'm just using an example) Then reality is thrown out of the window.>> Sun Tzu 7/23: << I also said that based on my model fair value for TDFX is around $45 (or at least $23 if you use a very conservative model). So add it up for yourself. >> Quick question Sun Tzu. When exactly did YOU throw reality out the window? I think everybody here is old enough and can think for themselves. A better idea would be to argue the actual merrits of the stock rather than buy or sell recommendations. You have a good analytical mind so why not put it to good use. If you absolutely feel compelled to save people from themselves try the Yahoo board. It's like a daycare center over there and they need a little handholding. Patrick Grinsell P.S. Sorry for the long one, only 3 times until I get my cheap ass wallet out. P.P.S. Is Voodoo2 in Costco yet?