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To: Jamey who wrote (26442)	7/24/1998 11:39:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Insiders sell off then announce share buybacks with OUR money ! The single most blatant warning that I did not see; and a mistake that I will not make again, is to check insider sales religiously...we had a ton in April, May & June. Kind of ironic that a few of the companies that have announced share buybacks with ''shareholders'' money, have done so, after they sold their shares ! ...live & learn. PS: ...that damn NOESIS guy is looking like a genius. I will not argue that $8 crude is not possible, not because of fundamental demand/supply imbalances, but that the market traders have such power to move prices; they and not OPEC control the ball... Allthough, I remember the very ominious statement by the Saudi Oil Minister saying that a ''secret alliance'' might be formed that would NOT publically discuss anything, but rather they would catch the short traders by an unanticipated and unannounced dramatic act. Maybe they'll learn from those Wisconsin Dairy Farmers that just dumped their tanker trucks of Milk on the highway a few years back in the protest over low milk prices ! What we are seeing here is a total capitulation by the institutional & fund managers. We had not seen this untill now. As reported on CNBC at least one major fund manager started selling everything, all of it... and a few others followed. I would expect we are not done. No one could be faulted for making some initial buys here at these levels, but I just do not see the funds making a ''turn on a dime'' to reinvest here untill oil returns and stays solidly above $16.They have finally proven to me that they are NOT coming the the patch untill crude moves and without them buying, there will not be major price movement. I would never have believed that they would have passed up such fundamental value, but they have... and I must now acknowledge it; and go into the locker room at halftime and change my gameplan -- it is only halftime for the 'patch folks! - game aint nowhere near to being over ! We may stay flat here without much major movement because of a total lack of institutional/fund buying. I never expected that the professional money managers would not be taking profits off the table and rotating to undervalued sectors like the patch. Maybe they are moving to cash as the overall market sorts out where its going; doesn't make sense to me to be holding the large caps at these PE valuations; if it can happen to the patch - why not the overall market; damn LT wouldn't be far off at DOW 4000; it would only be about the same percentage loss as CDG has had....!?!