Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22286)	7/25/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: Barbara Barry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, What happened on the chart you use that you sent me?Did it ever give the trigger?My gut and psych indicators say wait and watch to see what kind of a bounce we get before puts.For the first time I am considering even getting out of equities on the next rally.BWDIK?But that Dow Theory bear market is meeting the targets:Dow<8900,Trans <3450,Utilities <276!This bull may have suffered the kind of wound that creates a slow death and not an immediate one.Lots to reconsider this weekend.If we don't rally back I will be completely,100% WRONG!!Tried to buy calls late Friday but didn't get filled.Bull markets don't die normally in a couple days,imho.What's your plan?I hope to have a shot at both calls and puts next week. Regards, Barbara

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22286)	7/26/1998 1:54:00 AM
From: Daniel Ray	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

So the bull is dead? Well, could be. Sooner or later we will have a down year by some measure. Seems like the sector rotation that characterizes the recent bull legs of the market will also characterize the bear legs. One thing that occurs to me on the overall dynamics at work here: the recent sell-off was in direct response to a fundamental event ('external shock' is another term) that has no fundamental importance. Greenspan's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony was the event/shock. Now many are calling the bull market dead based on technical reads of a zillion different indicators. But unless someone makes an argument that Greenspan's comments have changed the 'present value of a future stream of earnings'-- by hook or by crook or by changing the expectations v. interest rates--it seems like this fundamental non-event will recede into the realm of dim memory very quickly, right along with 'irrational exuberance'. . . . Hey, most of you people are probably smarter than me, but I have been investing in stocks since I was 13 (in 1975) and the only way I have ever lost a dime in the markets was by trying to call short-term moves. It doesn't mean I don't still try though! And I would say that more than 90% of what losses I have had have been in trying to time a top and play the short side. I keep thinking back to the discussion about the 55-day (50-day?) rule . . . I haven't heard it mentioned this go around. Does it somehow not apply here? Or do we see the BK in September after the recent highs? Anyway, I have been mostly in cash since the end of March with only a few highly speculative long positions that I am monitoring very closely . . . You know, Galbraith is an amazing thinker . . . I actually spent an hour with him once and his insights were very entertaining and thought-provoking, and I have read several of his books . . . but it never would occur to me to rely on his advice in timing the market, except perhaps as a contrary indicator. Some day the bull will die and perhaps July 23rd was indeed the day but, I firmly believe that it will be a REAL fundamental event that ultimately kills this bull. A real event it will be really hard to predict. Best wishes to all kahunans!