Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vted who wrote (2800)	7/27/1998 11:02:00 PM
From: synchro	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 7342

The stock market is a discounting machine, so you can argue that the current price is discounting 1999 and 2000 (perhaps even further into the future) earnings. What it all really means is that there is a lot of optimism and expectation built into the stock. If the quarterly earnings come through beating expectations, then the stock will rise on "momentum". If the earnings doesn't come thru (say, merely meeting expectations or God forbid, come below expectations), then either the stock will meander for a while on investor good will (witness Analog Devices's recent history until the latest detonation) or simply gap down 10 or 15 points. Let's not kid ourselves here, TLAB is not a "safe" investment at current prices. An excellent company or a financially secure company does not mean its stock is a good investment at any price. If you are buying at current prices, you are basically crossing fingers that TLAB is going to beat its numbers quarter-in and quarter-out. That may very well happen but it's not a sure thing at all. Especially now with all the different parts coming together who knows if the future earnings visibility is as good as it was in the past when TLAB was still a "one-trick pony", to borrow someone's phrase. Having said all that, I WILL confess that the way I started investing in TLAB is basically "cross my fingers" six quarterly earnings announcements ago--(the stock looked as "expensive" then as it does now). I do not profess any investment acumen as far as my TLAB commitment is concerned. IMHO, I just got lucky, very lucky (so far). In fact, I rather stupidly believed that the Steinbrecher acquisition was going to be the trigger for TLAB's future, having read George Gilder's Telecosm. Well, apparently TLAB wrote off that investment, so so much for that....