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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (12017)	7/26/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

The lack of posts and enthusiasm on this thread on a weekend that precedes a 5% market correction should be cause of some concern to the bulls. I guess people are just too unsure and staying on the side at this point after having so many of the shorts that have not worked out over the last 6 months. As an aside, has anyone noticed how poor MCI service (both LD phone and Internet) has become over the last few months? I used to give my business to them when they posed a good alternative to AT&T; no more. I may look at other alternatives, but their lack of concern for customers, arrogance of the customer service, and the quality of the service has become appalling of late; at one time, their service was pretty good as was their quality. They may become a good short candidate eventually; have to study their financials though, but it seems like they are going through lot of problems in the transition phase; that combined with what Ben Graham said about companies who acquire those that are much larger than themselves.....

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (12017)	7/27/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

>> Chances are Coke will be around much longer than DELL << KO deserves a PE much higher than DELL because it will be around much longer? What are the chances that KO will be around longer than Microsoft? Pretty high, right? So why doesn't Coke have a PE higher than Microsoft? >> Also I love the taste of Coke but couldn't care less if my PC was a Compaq, Hewlett Packard, IBM or a Dell as long as I got the cheapest price. << Apparently some people seem to prefer DELL, because these PC figures for Q2 show DELL surging with 75% market share gains. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Monday July 27, 12:01 am Eastern Time Q2 Personal Computer Shipments Global/U.S.-Surveys biz.yahoo.com NEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - The following are preliminary estimates by two separate technology market research firms on personalcomputer shipments during the second quarter, both worldwide and in the U.S. market. The first two tables cover data on worldwide and U.S. PC shipments collected by Dataquest, a unit of Gartner Group Inc. The third table covers U.S. PC shipments by International Data Corp. Dataquest Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipments Estimates for Second Quarter 1998 (Actual Units) Company Q2/98 Q2/98 Mkt Q2/97 Q2/97 Mkt Shipments Share(%) Shipments Share(%) Growth(%) 1 Compaq/ Digital 2,634,900 12.5 2,350,349 12.7 12.1 2 Dell 1,722,000 8.2 984,590 5.3 74.9 3 IBM 1,512,000 7.2 1,596,392 8.6 -5.3 4 Hewlett- Packard 1,162,400 5.5 986,035 5.3 17.9 5 Packard Bell-NEC 940,000 4.4 957,322 5.2 -1.8 Others 13,153,700 62.3 11,671,720 62.9 12.7 Total 21,125,000 100.0 18,546,408 100.0 13.9 Notes: Table covers personal computers only (desktop, deskside, notebook, ultraportable,laptop, and transportable). Server PCs are not included. Sales for Compaq include all Digital Equipment sales for the entire second quarter. Compaq acquired Digital in June. Dataquest Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipments, Estimates for Second Quarter 1998 (Actual Units) Company Q2/98 Q2/98 Mkt Q2/97 Q2/97 Mkt Shipments Share(%) Shipments Share(%) Growth(%) Compaq/ Digital 1,108,465 14.4 1,047,469 15.3 5.8 Dell 1,090,000 14.2 627,590 9.1 73.7 Packard Bell-NEC 650,000 8.5 688,614 10.0 -5.6 Gateway 619,000 8.1 456,781 6.7 35.5 Hewlett- Packard 600,000 7.8 451,000 6.6 33.0 Others 3,612,535 47.0 3,588,330 52.3 0.7 Total 7,680,000 100.0 6,859,784 100.0 12.0 Notes: Tables cover personal computers only (desktop, deskside, notebook, ultraportable, laptop, and transportable). Servers are not included. Sales for Compaq include all Digital Equipment sales for the entire second quarter. Compaq acquired Digital in June. International Data Corp. Preliminary U.S. PC Shipments, Estimates for Second Quarter 1998 (Thousands of Units) Q298 Q2 1998 Market Q2 1997 Market Growth Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 1998/97 1 Compaq- Digital 1,157 14.4% 1,039 14.3% 11% 2 Dell 1,143 14.3% 666 9.1% 72% 3 Hewlett- Packard 627 7.8% 473 6.5% 33% 4 Gateway 623 7.8% 470 6.5% 33% 5 Packard Bell NEC 613 7.6% 685 9.4% -11% Others 3,851 48.1% 3,946 54.2% -2% All Vendors 8,014 100.0% 7,279 100.0% 10% Notes: Sales for Compaq include all Digital Equipment sales for the entire second quarter. Compaq acquired Digital in June. The figures represent shipments into distribution channels or direct to end-users. They do not track sales out of indirect distribution channels. As such, the figures measure factory shipments, but may understate final customer sales by Compaq-Digital, Hewlett-Packard and Packard Bell NEC, which ship large amounts of their inventory through indirect distribution channels. Shipments are company-branded shipments and exclude Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) sales by the companies. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >> How is Mr. Dell going to outprice the Chinese who steal the technology and use slave labor to assemble unit? << When is the last time you purchased a computer from a chinese manufacturer? What about Japanese companies such as Packard Bell/NEC, Sony, Toshiba, etc? Acer is Taiwanese, I don't see them killing DELL. Contrary to what you may believe, China is not yet equipped to come in and destroy a company like DELL.