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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (6224)	7/26/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Amat / Klac <<The fundamentals are as bad or worse than the last bottom in the semi conductor capital equipment business cycle yet the stock price is way higher than the bottom last time. This suggests that the price really ought to be a lot lower than the 30ish it's at now. It really 'should' be in the low 20's or lower.>> I agree with your comments. I too believe that Amat ought to be priced lower than 30ish especially because the earnings and valuation seem out of alignment. But the fact is that the market is pricing the stock at the moment at 30 so my / our opinions are wrong...at least in here. <<But, the brokerage recommendations are generally "buy" and the institutions are into the stock and holding on. There is a good chance that the institutions will wake up and start selling the stock down to a level comensurate with its fundamentals. I've nibbled at AMAT (at 27) but will not buy more unless it goes below 25 or, there began to appear real signs that the chip makers were beginning to build new fabrication plants.>> Perhaps, but have you considered the risk / reward ratio with this particular stock. The upside may be 2:1 or 3:1 or better in the next upturn. I suspect any purchase below 35 or even 40 will turn out to be a good investment in the long-term.

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (6224)	7/27/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: mister topes	Respond to of 42834

Lets just remember one important point regarding the semiconductor capital equipment large cap players like AMAT, KLAC, NVLS & TER. When the time comes that "real orders are streaming in as the turnaround in the cap ex spending cycle is imminent", stocks like AMAT, KLAC, NVLS and TER will take off like rocket ships. Investors looking to bottom fish in names like these will be left holding the bag and kicking themselves around as the stocks double across the board. That is the way the cap ex equipment stocks trade. When conditions are turning the soar to the moon. That is why those gradually accumulating shares on 1998 weakness will be very happy investors in 1999 when their ship comes in.