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To: Carl Mays who wrote (2602)	7/26/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 3696

Carl, Thanks for the words of caution. All the same, UTEK has made exceptional progress. A year ago, many had conceded an eternal monopoly to ETEC. Now both Leica and UTEK have credible entries. I would not expect UTEK's first model in the field to be the last innovation it will ever do. These people strike me as being quite capable and dedicated to success - their customers as well as their own. I found my post from last year - it was Oct 15, 1997. My memory was out a bit. Art had expected to capture about $900M by 2000 with PGILD not the $500M I recalled. I would expect that the market size estimates hold, but not the timing. A nice series of questions for IR... I believe there were other posts near this time from those who listened to the audio of Art's presentation that presented some additional facts. FWIW, Ian. I just finished listening to the audio of Art Z talking to the NYSSA Semiconductor Conference held this August in New York. Unlike Intel, Art's slides weren't available from UTEK's web site, so I couldn't page thru the slides while Art was talking. He's an outstanding speaker able to deliver a very convincing message. Quite impressive. He plans to do more than $1B sales by 2000. Numbers I scribbled from the audio were: Spare Parts: $100M MEMS: 100M ThinFilm/MR 150M Lithography 350M UltraBeam 100-150M Verdant(PGILD) 900M (150 machines at $6M) Not seeing the slide, I suspect there's some double counting here. e.g. the Litho 350M is probably a duplicate of the first 3 lines. All the same, some impressive growth. Original post at Message 2458870

To: Carl Mays who wrote (2602)	7/27/1998 9:16:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3696

>>Just be careful in these areas. Did anyone notice that P-GILD has transformed to a rapid thermal annealing process rather than a revolutionary elimination of several photolithography steps required for ion implementation. This is a subtle change that has major implications.<< The revolutionary implications of PGILD are still out there, but the industry doesn't need the capability yet. Meanwhile, the RTA applications are here now and offer some significant advantages over conventional rapid thermal processing. At least that's the way Art explained it when I met with him at Semicon. Katherine