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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (54337)	7/27/1998 2:30:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 176387

John, I had a look at both the Dataquest and IDC data and compared their historical estimates with DELL's actual reported unit sales. It appears that IDC has been the more accurate of the 2 research companies. Dataquest, to their credit, states that server sales are not included in their numbers, which in the case of DELL has been in the range of 50,000 units per quarter. Adding in the the April vs July factor [April was reported to have been a very soft month] I come to a Q2 unit sales volume of 1.800 million units [with a + or - factor of 25,000 units]. Gateway recently reported a sequential decline in ASP of 2.4% and I've used a sequential ASP decline of 3% for DELL resulting in a net ASP of $2392 for Q2. Keeping everything else constant from my estimates which were posted last week I come to an eps of 50›. Interesting to note that US volume increased 21.5% sequentially this quarter - the largest volume increase since Q3, 97. Presumably, a good part of this incremental volume was due to the advertising campaign. Based on my calculations the $20m ad spend for Q2 [total $70 budget] was completely absorbed within the 11.30% Operating Expenses thanks to this increase. Overall, with an estimated Q3 eps of 57› and Q4 eps of 66› fiscal '99 should come in around $1.481 billion after tax or $2.09 eps. - a 60% increase over fiscal 1998 results - based on total revenue of $18.6 billion. In my view DELL is in great shape and looking better all the time.