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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (54392)	7/27/1998 2:33:00 PM
From: LWolf	Respond to of 176387

Gabriel - very nice analysis. thanks, laura

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (54392)	7/27/1998 2:38:00 PM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Q2 figures for IDC & Dataquest are not actually for DELL's Q2, but rather the corresponding quarter. In this case, that would be DELL's first quarter of FY99, which ended April 30. At least that's my understanding. DELL's Q2 is not over until July 31. Am I wrong? LoD

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (54392)	7/27/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 176387

My earlier question withstanding, Gabriel, this is an excellent analysis. Your numbers put DELL $0.15 ahead of the consensus for FY99, and $0.04 ahead for Q299. How did you arrive at Q3&4 figures? LoD

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (54392)	7/27/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Thanks Gab. But why a greater ASP decline for DELL then GTW? I would think it would less for DELL then GTW? Greg

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (54392)	7/27/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176387

Very discerning yet conservative. Gabriel: Quite a discerning analysis sir, much obliged. Keeping everything else constant from my estimates which were posted last week I come to an eps of 50›. Overall, with an estimated Q3 eps of 57› and Q4 eps of 66› fiscal '99 should come in around $1.481 billion after tax or $2.09 eps. - a 60% increase over fiscal 1998 results - based on total revenue of $18.6 billion. For fiscal 1999 the consensus are: First Call=$1.97 Zacks=$1.96 Gabriel=$2.09 First call consensus for Q2=.46, Q3=.50 and Q4=.57 Gabriel (Q2)=.50 If your estimate comes true for Q2 plus a split,I think, this puppy will fly conversely if Dell comes in with anything below .48-.49 and no split I think we can say good bye to +15-20% of the stock price at least for a while considering the high expectations by the Street and individual investors.If you are right and with a split I will be in hog heaven if not I will have a lot of explaining to do to myself and to the wife if she is looking for having put a lot of money relatively speaking of course) into DELL during the last 2 years or so. Pheeeew this is getting to be too exciting either way.Once again thanks a lot for your efforts and hope you stay with DELL for a while for obvious reasons.<gg>

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (54392)	7/27/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Gabriel: Thank you for your hard work and excellent analysis... A couple questions/comments: <<Adding in the the April vs July factor [April was reported to have been a very soft month] I come to a Q2 unit sales volume of 1.800 million units [with a + or - factor of 25,000 units]>> I think we will be safely over 1.8 million and maybe as high as 1.85.....It appears from my (limited research) that April is pretty much the worse month for PC sales each year....especially, this year! July unit sales, I think, will be significantly higher than April...I could see the substitution of July for April sales having a positive impact as high as + 70,000... <<Gateway recently reported a sequential decline in ASP of 2.4% and I've used a sequential ASP decline of 3% for DELL resulting in a net ASP of $2392 for Q2.>> I have seen in print where (supposedly) Gateway's ASP has gone down 12% and 2.4%.....Since you also quote the 2.4% figure, I am assuming that is accurate....Did you get this off of their (Gateway's) reporting? <<Keeping everything else constant from my estimates which were posted last week I come to an eps of 50›.>> .50 would be just fine. .51/.52 would be heaven.....I got a feeling that (you are right in one of your earlier posts that) the whisper number will probably be .50 by the time earnings rolled around.....so .49 could turn out to be a disappointment for some (having said this, if the whisper goes to .50, I think we should see 125-130 before earnings)... <<Interesting to note that US volume increased 21.5% sequentially this quarter - the largest volume increase since Q3, 97. Presumably, a good part of this incremental volume was due to the advertising campaign. Based on my calculations the $20m ad spend for Q2 [total $70 budget] was completely absorbed within the 11.30% Operating Expenses thanks to this increase.>> Dell went all Pentium II in the second quarter, I am assuming that the margins will be better on these units vs. comparable PC's sold in Q1....also, I would think on the consumer side, the ad campaign, Fortune cover article, and CNN piece pushed tremendous U.S. consumer growth... <<Overall, with an estimated Q3 eps of 57› and Q4 eps of 66› fiscal '99 should come in around $1.481 billion after tax or $2.09 eps. - a 60% increase over fiscal 1998 results - based on total revenue of $18.6 billion.>> Wouldn't it be EPS $ 2.17.....(.44+.50+.57+.66= $ 2.17) ? <<In my view DELL is in great shape and looking better all the time. >> Couldn't agree with you more.Man, what powerful trends Dell is riding.....Upgrades in Europe because of the Euro and Y2K....(Did you see Eckhard Pfeiffer quoted in the Wall Street as saying he thinks Y2K will help sales)...European companies upgrading en masse as a result of being "under-computerized", the acceptance of on-line (internet) purchasing, consolidation of marketshare to the biggest in the industry....etc, etc..... Again, thanks again for your hard work. It is great to have such talented individuals on the thread!