Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
July 30, 1998
Russia Increases Pressure on Chechnya as Crisis Builds in Moscow
Russia continues to be rocked by financial crises, and the first round of
loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has not dispelled the
widespread pessimism about Russia's near future. Russia's financial
markets have resumed their fall, as there is little faith in the ability of
Moscow to successfully implement emergency economic measures required by
the IMF, and great fear of the social unrest that could be fueled if the
measures actually are applied. The IMF's loans have given Moscow barely a
week and a half of breathing room, and the opposition continues to rapidly
organize for action against the government, Russia's oligarches, and the
loans. As the situation in Russia again heats up, Moscow has chosen to
direct its attention to the Caucasus.
Stories have been multiplying in Moscow of instability in the Caucasus, and
particularly of the threat of Wahhabi Islamic fundamentalism in Chechnya
and Dagestan. On Monday, July 27, tycoon and CIS Executive Secretary Boris
Berezovsky, former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, retired general and
Krasnoyarsk Governor Aleksandr Lebed, and Tatarstan President Mintimer
Shaimiev issued a statement calling on the government to implement a "clear
policy to stabilize the situation in Chechnya and the north Caucasus." In
response, a Russian government spokesman stated on July 28 that Yeltsin's
cabinet fully agrees with the four politicians' statement. However, the
spokesman said that the cabinet had already been developing just such a
plan, ever since Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko's July 15 visit to
Dagestan.
A more poignant demonstration of Russia's attention to the situation is the
fact that, from July 27 to 31, Russia's entire 58th Army -- along with
units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Services,
the Federal Border Guard Service, and "all the other power-wielding bodies"
-- is conducting exercises throughout the north Caucasus. The exercises,
which are taking place in North Ossetia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabarda-
Balkaria, and Stavropol Territory, involve preparations for "preventing
possible terrorist attacks in the region, hostage taking, attacks by
bandits on convoys, and smuggling across the Russian state borders."
While the joint command and staff exercises will be centered in Dagestan,
which borders Chechnya, 58th Army Chief of Staff Major General Aleksei
Merkuryev insisted to the Russian news agency, ITAR-TASS, that they bear no
relation to recent events in Dagestan or Chechnya. The general claimed
only that "We must be prepared for any unforseen attack on Russia's
southern borders, and to defend the north Caucasus."
Colonel General Leontii Shevtsov, Russian Deputy Interior Minister and
Chief of the North Caucasian operational headquarters of the Ministry of
Internal Affairs, offered a slightly different view of the exercises. In a
clear reference to Chechnya, the general told ITAR-TASS that the drills aim
to "practice measures necessary to offer resistance even in a large-scale
conflict of the type that has been unleashed by illegal armed groups of
separatists and extremists on several occasions."
Among the high-level officials directly involved in the exercises is
Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin. In early July, Stepashin firmly denied
that the government was planning another war in Chechnya, though his
declarations have not convinced local leaders. Krasnodar Territory
Governor Nikolai Kondratenko told reporters on July 30 that "A new spiral
of the second Caucasian war is beginning." He claimed that the "war is
generated by those who are in Moscow offices."
The Chechen Foreign Office on July 28 issued a statement condemning the
"blatant demonstration of crude force on the part of Russia" along the
length of the Chechen border. The statement claimed the exercises are "an
open demonstration of force which may destabilize the military and
political situation in the entire Caucasus region." The statement noted
that the exercises are being carried out in advance of an upcoming meeting
between Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko and Chechen President Aslan
Maskhadov, and appealed to Moscow to cease using the display of force to
attempt to pressure Chechnya.
Meanwhile, the situation remains tense in Moscow. Russian President Boris
Yeltsin suddenly cut short his vacation in Karelia on Wednesday, July 29,
and is returning to Moscow. ITAR-TASS cited Yeltsin as saying he was
returning to deal with "urgent business" regarding Russia's economic
crisis. However, the presidential press service only confirmed Yeltsin's
return, and declined to give a reason. The Interfax news agency claimed
that the Karelian weather was too cold and rainy to allow Yeltsin to go
fishing. Yeltsin will reportedly spend several days at his residence
outside Moscow before resuming his vacation.
Part of the reason for Yeltsin's sudden return may be that, on Thursday,
July 30, regional branches of the All-Russia Movement in Support of the
Army, the Defense Industry, and Military Science (MSA) are due to declare
their preparedness for planned nationwide demonstrations
(http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/072498.html). MSA
leader Viktor Ilyukhin has called for the overthrow of President Yeltsin,
and the Movement has already established its own "security force."
Ilyukhin has rejected the idea of the IMF loans and has argued that the
money needed to bail out the Russian economy can be easily found in the
pockets of Russia's current political leaders and oligarches. In what may
be the government's response to the MSA, Russian Minister of Justice Pavel
Krasheninnikov is scheduled to announce "several steps to limit the rights
of extremist political organizations" at a government meeting on Thursday.
Despite the efforts of international lending institutions to stabilize the
situation, Russia continues to spiral toward chaos. With most in Russia
expecting the IMF bailout to fail, and threats of coups or uprisings still
shaking Moscow, the Yeltsin regime is wrapping itself in its last hope, the
mantle of nationalism. With all else failing around it, Moscow is reviving
a favorite old foe, the threat of Islamic fundamentalism to Mother Russia.
We note in this case that they have singled out the Wahhabi, a primarily
Saudi sect, rather than Iranian Shiite fundamentalism. This is clearly a
signal to Iran that Russia's housekeeping is contained and in the interest
of internal stability, at least for now. Russia is not yet ready to take
on Iran directly, but as the Western bailout fails and Russia returns to an
aggressive nationalist policy, we expect Russia and Iran to contend for
Central Asia.
Coup or no coup, Russia is abandoning its Westernizing experiment. It is
reviving nationalism, first to put its own house in order, and later to
drive the rebuilding of its empire.
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