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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (26639)	7/28/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Richard D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Steve, I have followed you over from the old Amati days. It's good to read your posts. Marc is no more negative about the sector than most, but most have already sold or are shorting or buying puts, etc. He's the most negative long I've seen in a while. Perhaps it's a subtle gallows humor, but very subtle most of the time. What's good about the sector? Well the best thing is that the optimal time to buy is when blood is running in the streets and sentiment is at its nadir. We are certainly seeing the blood run. That signals that most investors interested in the sector are out or short. If they are out, the selling must soon dry up. It's true of retiring the wells also. This downturn may last just long enough to close a multitude of marginal wells permanently. This should help oil pricing on a permanent basis and spur drilling quicker when pricing firms. Perhaps this is part of the OPEC strategy (though I admit that's wishful thinking.) You need to be in a sector with good long fundamentals for this strategy to work, and I believe we are just on the cusp of China multiplying their need for oil, not to mention the growth in the real oil hungry Western nations. Asia as a whole I'll take a pass on, but as I've said before, their misery ironically may sustain our steady growth going forward (a splash of cold water on the overheating economic engine.) Richard

To: SJS who wrote (26639)	7/29/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Alaskaman	Respond to of 95453

Picked a guy up at the airport today with your same name...well what do you know. Word from some oil think tank folks is we are at about the bottom and will hold for a month or so before rising. Again this is their opinion. If true i'll start buying again tomorrow when the rubble of today clears! Good luck. One thing is for sure valuations are a true indicator of a stocks worth but maybe not it's current value. Average down and go for it but it will be a while before it rises. Prices like these are great..You will be singing the energy chant next year... Come and listen to a man named Sohn, a poor oil investor barely kept his family fed..Then one day he was guessing at a stock and up from the ground came that stock right back...Money that is...Yachts to sail...Woman to .... Good Luck Ken