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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1685)	7/29/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Melissa, Im with you about the Jan calls - but... selectivity is required in enterprise sw like never before it seems. So, avg companies with avg products just arent going to get huge multiples for the next 2 years is my guess, dispite solid numbers. So if you look at say, clfy, even if they post good numbers Im just not sure the stock is going to rebound heavily. Even on the arsw (olap sw) thread they are talking about why their stock is so low - people just dont want to see that this is a problem with the entire sector at this point vs. company specific. I doubt seriously that CA is going to bounce right back from its lows for example. I really like PSFT,ITWO,SEBL,MANU as companies and if the sector comes back into favor we have to get a bounce on those. But the mid-tier, Im not sure sure (some would argue Manu is mid-tier but I like the company so let me disclose my bias right up front). Nobody commented about Sap v. Psft in the small business arena. I really believe Psft will take Sap there - and there are lots of smaller installations coming with the proliferation of NT and the cheap enterprise servers Dell is selling,etc. What small business wants to go through the pain and suffering of a Sap installation? Michelle

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1685)	7/29/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: Just_Observing	Respond to of 4509

Drop in Software Sector We have CA to thank for this correction, IMHO. They have lost about 17 billion in market cap since announcing earnings last week. Imagine that you are a mutual fund manager, say, Fidelity Software. Your mutual fund NAV is down sharply and investors start bailing out. You are forced to sell across the board. Moreover, to minimize tax consequences, you want to have profits to match the horrific losses in CA . So you sell some of the stock where you have had your best gains so that you net out with a neutral tax result. So you will sell SEBL, PSFT, NETA, ITWO, MANU, etc. You are forced to sell the best of your holdings since they have the largest profits. The short sellers meantime have a field day with the sector knowing that the contagion will spread. And the 'TA followers' see this as the confirmation that TA works and sell out. With the lowering of the costs of trading, the incentive to buy and hold has been reduced dramatically further increasing the volatility. We are moving to the era of frictionless trading where the commissions are minuscule compared to the cost of holding in a downturn. The price swings will get much worse. The only stocks in the software sector immune to this are those that trade in foreign markets where the CA debacle did not strike. So BAANF and SAPHY have been relatively immune. Also, much larger caps such as MSFT are seen as a safe haven when others are collapsing. Every debacle increases the "apparent value" of these mega-stocks as they are perceived as being immune to such phenomena. This is just my opinion. What do you think?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1685)	7/29/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: GJD	Respond to of 4509

The Market broke out to new highs on very narrow advance/decline ratio and now has moved back into its base which is a bad signal. Even the techs were only led by mega caps like CSCO/MSFT/LU/DELL. the rest of the mkt did not participate. The Internet stocks are also going into a correction so will just have to wait and see what area will emerge as the leader. It might end up being a very oversold market that has absorbed the selling well, like the Semiconductor Group.

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1685)	7/29/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: Marq Spencer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Melissa, My thoughts exactly on the Jan calls. I also think that PSFT will probably see a 20% run-up over the next six months (Jan call expiration). I think that the stock is near the bottom (I do think that 32 will hold), barring a massive market correction. I'll wait for it to flatten out before I buy, but as some of you may remember, both Melissa and I were waiting for it to get back in the 30's :). - Brian.

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1685)	7/29/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: bronze	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Last Sunday I saw ads in the New York Times for PeopleSoft consultants promising 200-300K. If any of the peoplesoft people on the bench get bored maybe they can console themselves with a low six figure income. In any case, I think that the applications market is strong and is growing. Oracle's Larry Ellison is focusing his attention on the applications business. I really doubt that he would devote his time to a shrinking market. I think he sees a genuine opportunity here. In short, I think the issue with PSFT is a short term focus on Wall Street stats and not so much an indictment of the business model. Just a thought(s).