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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: FMK who wrote (3536)7/30/1998 8:52:00 AM
From: John Curtis  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27311
 
FMK: LOL! Agreed, I can now be a little less of a "harpster" over the financing area. Clearly they've covered it through the next year IF the burn rate remains as is, and IF those milestones are hit. It appears VLNC is now converting from an R&D shop to a full commercial operation and based on the financing it also appears they anticipate being fully "locked and loaded" by this time next year. This is good.

Now let's see the next series of steps happen pronto. 1) Some sort of statement of integrated line functionality(a good statement, of course), 2) some sort of statement on the outcome of OEM testing of 2nd generation laminate, and the biggie, 3) OEM p.o.'s. Hey, maybe these are the mysterious milestones, eh? If I look into my crystal ball using the notes from L.D.'s last c.c., me thinks the proper prediction is we'll be hearing something on one or all of the above within the next month to month and a half. So YES, I am bullish on this equity.

Meanwhile, though, until such time as these announcements occur I see a neutral to slightly positive bias to VLNC in terms of stock pricing. Why? The Street's obviously either not hearing, or discounting, the significance of the financing arrangement. Clearly they need to hear one, or all, of the above 3 items before committing customers, read here casheeesh, to VLNC. This ain't entirely bad. However, as closed mouth as VLNC has been in the past I do expect a certain amount of "leakage" once the milestones are reached, simply because human beings being human beings at exciting moments in a developmental stage company's growth tend to "yak," eh? In other words, just like the past Monday at 3:45pm, monitor buy/sells closely for another telegraphing moment. By the way, those August call's, and the recent associated volume, just might be saying something folks should evaluate.

All of the above is imho, of course.

Regards!

John~



To: FMK who wrote (3536)7/31/1998 1:38:00 AM
From: add  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Your analysis of the lines has been very informative and I greatly appreciate it.

My concerns with this stock is that they don't seem to have true control of the manufacturing line. For a mass producer, this is where the money is made, especially if competitors are selling identical products or close substitutes.

Is VLNC capable of cost-effectively ramping up production ? Can they even get one line going without a lot of scrap and down time ?

My second question is that given the advantages, why haven't we seen a sales announcement yet ? They have been shipping a lot of prototypes the last 6 months, yet no contract ?

If someone can give me good answers to these 2 questions, I might believe in this stock a little more.