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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (22289)	7/30/1998 5:11:00 PM
From: Henry Eichorszt	Respond to of 70976

FROM CBSMARKETWATCH-Equipment makers still smiling Applied Materials sees sign of hope on the Web By Binti Harvey and Tom Murphy, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 3:46 PM ET Jul 30, 1998 Also see Tech Report SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The mood in the semiconductor equipment industry remains cautious at best, although several companies offered glimmers of hope at a stock conference this week. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), for example, was hesitant to make financial forecasts at the BancAmerica Robertson Stephens Semiconductor Conference in San Francisco. But its executives said they're confident about the prospects for recovery, and expects the Internet to be a major growth driver. Others with similar points of view were KLA Tencor (KLAC), Cadence Design Systems (CDN) and Electro Scientific (ESIO). Breaking NewsU.S. stocks buoyed amid tech rallyHerculean premium for BetzDearbornTight labor markets begin to pinchBillions of reasons for AT&T-TCI dealCabinet reshuffle spurs queasinessMore top stories...CBS MarketWatch Front PageCBS MarketWatch ColumnsUpdated: 7/30/98 3:24:34 PMÿET Chip equipment makers are trading well below their highs, beset by an oversupply of semiconductors, weak Asian economies and reduced capital equipment investment. Most major companies in the industry reported second-quarter results that significantly trailed analysts' original expectations, and continuing uncertainty has kept share prices in a narrow trading range. "We're in a triple witching hour, caused by the Asian economic crisis, chipmakers' quest for market share at any cost and the rise of the sub-$1,000 PC," said Applied Materials Chairman and Chief Executive James Morgan. Yet Morgan maintains an optimistic outlook for the company, once it overcomes current unfavorable conditions. Already rebounding? Morgan said Applied Materials maintains the strongest position in the industry. Morgan, who voiced confidence that a rebound already is under way, said he expects the recovery's drivers to be stabilization of the Asian economies, which should stimulate more aggressive investment in technology, and the continued growth of the Internet. Morgan said he sees the Internet's increasing importance to businesses and consumers increasing chip demand, which would necessitate added capital equipment investment. He also said he believes that computers' increasing interconnection will boost the need for memory chips, sparking renewed demand for dynamic random access memory and re-establishing a supply-and-demand balance in that market. Guarded optimism Electro Scientific (ESIO) execs expressed hope the rapid rise in the market for embedded memory chips will help it sell more memory repair systems. Sales of those machines have been off a third from last fall's level. "We are seeing an increasing opportunity in embedded memory systems," said Joe Reinhart, vice president for business development. See related story. KLA-Tencor CFO Robert Boehike emphasized his company's strong balance sheet, suggesting it will leave the company well-positioned to grow when the broader chip industry regains its footing. Cadence Design System, which makes chip design software, said it has seen only "minimal" slowing as a result of the slowdown. Why? Because chipmakers have to continue to design new chips even when sales of their existing chips are in a slump. See related story.ÿÿ Binti Harvey is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch. Tom Murphy is Managing Editor. CBSMW MarketPlace Download business software at the CBS MarketWatch Software Store Beat the street with books from CBS MarketWatch's Bookstoreÿ Trade Here Trade Here Trade Here Trade Here Trade Here Trade Here ÿFRONT PAGEÿÿÿNEWS INDEXÿÿÿHEADLINESÿÿÿCOLUMNSÿÿÿMARKET DATAÿÿÿGLOBAL MARKETSÿÿÿÿMARKET MONITOR CHARTINGÿÿÿPORTFOLIOSÿÿÿMUTUAL FUNDSÿÿÿWEALTH CLUBÿÿÿSTOCKCHATÿÿÿTRADING CENTER INVESTOR'S PRIMERÿÿÿFEEDBACK ÿÿÿADVERTISINGÿÿÿCOMPANY INFORMATION CBS MARKETWATCH RTÿÿÿCBS MARKETWATCH LIVE c 1998 MarketWatch.com, L.L.C. All rights reserved. Disclaimer. MarketWatch.com is a joint venture of CBS and Data Broadcasting Corporation. CBS and the CBS "eye device" are registered trademarks of CBS Inc.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (22289)	7/30/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: derek cao	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Off topic: Re: When has Greenspan eased when he said he would tighten? Greenspan has said "tighten bias" for more than a year. But if checked the money supply, it said otherwise. Price stability is determined by money supply. Interest rate is only one of many methods to change money supply. Re: Why should he ease to save Asia? Absolutely should not. But ease to keep American economy smooth sailing? You bet. Re: Shouldn't time be spent on trying to figure out why it keeps sailing away? Yes. Here is my list: 1) competitive company 2) productive workforce 3)a lean government(comparing with other developed economy) 4)a sensible central bank etc... Re:Money flows(supply?) and inflation will be the key, and will be bring eventual disaster. Agree. But I will not exclude overcapacity and deflation possibilities. I saw somewhere that investment increases 30% annually while consumer sales only at 3%. How long will this continue? Derek

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (22289)	7/30/1998 8:19:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Gene, <off-topic mostly> (1) Buffet, you and numerous others have made many fortunes riding the high-flying leaders of today's market, and in many cases the stocks were bought early enough that your and others costs are very low. My point here is that this is Buffett's situation. If I owned Coke at a cost of $4/sh, would I be worried about a 20-30% correction in the overall market... No, not even close. (2) From your posts a month or so ago, I feel you believe we should ride this tiger while the "gettin's good". And that you will have the gut feeling or something to hop off in time, before the big one hits. That gets to the stretching it part, in my view. I don't expect the market to tank on the day or month I pick out (and I know you don't either). The danger levels are high now is my main point and I tend to think was Jacob's. Though he is very capable of speaking for himself. (3) I can't see that anything has changed in the semi-equip world, except perception, which does matter. But perception can flip back and forth in this sector during the next weeks and/or months easily. James Morgan has been routinely too optimistic with his thoughts and predictions for many years. Question may become: can he sell this BS? He was interviewed on TV (the San Jose station, I believe) and said the Asian crisis would be a small "blip" to his company, and later made comments to the effect that the cheap PCs were irrelevant to the business environment. Excuse me, but these were not good predictions. (4) Re: "Monetary growth." I have research that says the monetary base growth rate is slowing and may have peaked a couple of months ago. This report is dated June 12, 1998, so we need to make sure that nothing has changed since then. (5) I would say it's a very good bet there were people who felt positively there was nothing to worry about in 1929, the economy looked good, the outlook was bright and stocks were overpriced. (6) When the shoe-shine person is giving you his stock picks, it's a sign that darn near everybody's money is in this market already. So, after the foreigners get finished throwing their money into "safe havens", what will be the fuel for this market? (7) I appreciate your view because you force me to try to see it through your perspective.