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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (22317)	7/31/1998 3:34:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

jeffrey: re: "hurry, there are few seats left and it is set to take off" Could you share with us, please, exactly why you think amat is about to take off? Just facts and clear reasoning. 1. when will equip bookings start trending up? 2. when will micron's asp be up enough so they are making money? 3. when will big orders for copper and 300 mm be placed ? 4. when will analysts start increasing earnings estimates? (every revision I've seen all year has been a decrease) 5. when will we have visibility? Right now, I don't see any of these things happening before early 1999. Until these start happening, all rallies will be false rallies. There is a huge amount of momentum money watching this sector eagerly, trying to time the upturn. Any shred of good news incites a flurry of eager buyers. Then, if momentum isn't sustained (because the fundamentals won't support it), the stocks will slide back down. Think of how many times this year amat has peaked at 38-40, only to retreat back as far as 26. And every time, just as the stock peaked, people would post, "all-time highs soon!!!!!". Momentum guessers never learn, no matter how many times they burn their fingers, the flame still attracts.