Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (22319)	7/31/1998 5:53:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob: Re: " I don't see any of these things happening before early 1999. Until these start happening, all rallies will be false rallies. There is a huge amount of momentum money watching this sector eagerly, trying to time the upturn. Any shred of good news incites a flurry of eager buyers. Then, if momentum isn't sustained (because the fundamentals won't support it), the stocks will slide back down." Your analysis seems good on the surface unless a change in fundamentals is preceded close in time by a false rally that holds in which case the rally will have been a real rally by virtue of the change in fundamentals and then stock prices will not slide back down to their former level as a result. You are correct on your read of institutional motivation. They have itchy trigger fingers now and they can and will move at any point in time and without good reason. But if they happen to be right whether by chance or good analysis in moving this sector before a change in fundamentals which does occur after a false rally which becomes real, you will be left holding air or chasing a rising market. That is the risk in your analysis and as time marches on it becomes an even greater risk. Unfortunately, your analysis presupposes a rational market every step of the way and that is not always a safe bet.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (22319)	7/31/1998 6:59:00 AM
From: alfred felsberger	Respond to of 70976

RE: "1. when will equip bookings start trending up? 2. when will micron's asp be up enough so they are making money? 3. when will big orders for copper and 300 mm be placed ? 4. when will analysts start increasing earnings estimates? (every revision I've seen all year has been a decrease) 5. when will we have visibility?" Nobody knows, but one thing is for sure: it will happen when AMAT is at 39 (or higher) and not at 26.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (22319)	7/31/1998 12:47:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob:<<Right now, I don't see any of these things happening before early 1999>> Hmm, still reluctant to switch from prop to jet. It always interests me that when someone has a different outlook on a stock or industry sector than what someone else posted, that someone else demands "the facts and nothing but the facts" on which this different outlook is based. It's interesting because you are demanding facts for future events that no one can predict. Be assured if I could predict the future with 100% certainty I wouldn't be working my day job now. I do, however, understand AMAT's position in its sector. It is the biggest and the best managed. It provides a quality product that will still be in demand in the future no matter what shape any foreseeable advances in technology might take. It is able to weather business downturns better and take advantage of upturns better than its smaller competitors. In short, I feel it is the undisputed leader in a growth industry and will continue to be for many years to come. In addition, unlike some on this thread, I do not find Capt. Morgan to be prone to over optimism and I have noticed a positive change in his future outlook. So have others. He understands his industry infinitely better than I do and if you believe in the future of AMAT {I presume that is why the majority of us are on this thread} then you have to take what he says very seriously. You predict fundamentals for this sector could change as soon as early 1999. I hope you are 100% correct {By the way,if you are a Bob Brinker fan he agrees with you}. If you are right, that would be the exact reason for the market to be buying AMAT now. "Momentum" has nothing to do with it. Jacob, there is still a seat left in first class for you. Jeff